The National Bank of Kazakhstan has released some data, setting the baseline for the planners in the Tokayev administration.
The Chairman of the National Bank of the country, Galymzhan Pirmatov, told the media:
- The GDP growth in 2022 is expected to be 2-3%, in 2023 – 3-4%, and in 2024-2025 – 3.5-4.5%.
- The inflation by the end of this year will be 20-21%. In 2023 it could be 11-13%, in 2024 – 7-9%, and in 2025 – 4-6%.
The bureau of national statistics of Kazakhstan told the media that the production of natural gas for the period Jan-Oct 2022 was Tenge 259.9 billion (approx. USD 550 million) in monetary term, showing a decrease of 1.5% against the same period of last year. The volume of natural gas produced was 43.37 billion cubic meters, which was also 1.5% less than the corresponding figures of the last year.
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The problems have been acknowledged publicly and this is the first, important, step toward solving them.
Some officials of the Tokayev administration have outlined the decisions to deal with the problems facing the country. Simultaneously, it has been pointed that the global downturn and uncertainty are the primary factors influencing the economy of Kazakhstan.
The minister of labour and social protection of Kazakhstan said that starting next year, the minimum wages for the unskilled workers will be increased from 60000 Tenge to 70000 Tenge. The minister said that other measures will also be taken to increase the income of the population.
Some sectors, because of their central in the society, will get special packages. The salaries of the workers of the educational organizations will be doubled in 2023. The salaries of the healthcare sector employees will be doubled in 2024. The salaries of the social security sector will be doubled in 2025.
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By announcing these figures, the team has created a baseline. The tasks ahead have also been set, quite modestly but realistically.
The urgent areas such as the increase in the entry-level unskilled workers are being addressed. The importance of the education, healthcare, and social security sectors has been acknowledged by promising to double their salaries.
This is the start of the implementation of the campaign promises made by President Tokayev.
The GDP growth targets may look rather small but let’s look at some figures.
The GDP growth rate of Kazakhstan was 4.1% in 2018, and 4.5% in 2019. If the policy managers expect that the GDP growth rate will be 4.5% in 2025, they are talking to full recovery to the level of 2019.
The size of the GDP of Kazakhstan in 2022 is USD 224 billion in nominal terms and USD 596 billion in PPP. On aggregate, Kazakhstan accounts for nearly 60% of the total GDP of Central Asia. Therefore, gaining adequate traction to reach 4.5% of growth in the GDP will be quite an achievement. /// nCa, 6 December 2022