Published by: International Gas Union (IGU), with Rystad Energy as Knowledge Partner Data cutoff: 31 December 2025 (with key developments through Q1/early Q2 2026)
The headline story
2025 was a record year for LNG. Then 2026 delivered the industry’s biggest shock since the Russia-Ukraine war. The report is essentially a tale of two halves: a mature, resilient industry finishing a strong year, immediately tested by a geopolitical crisis that knocked one of its three largest suppliers offline.
1. A record 2025
- Global LNG trade hit 436.98 million tonnes (Mt), up 6.3% (+25.7 Mt) year-on-year — the fastest growth since 2022, and a new all-time high.
- The US became the undisputed #1 exporter at 110.7 Mt (+22.3 Mt), overtaking Qatar (81.5 Mt) and Australia (80.3 Mt). Russia stayed 4th at 30.5 Mt, hurt by sanctions.
- Two new exporters were born: Canada (2.1 Mt, via LNG Canada) and Mauritania/Senegal (1.2 Mt, via the Tortue/Ahmeyim FLNG project) — the first new export markets since 2022.
- Europe was the demand story of the year: imports jumped 26.1 Mt to 126.2 Mt as the region absorbed the loss of Russian pipeline transit through Ukraine (which expired in early 2025). Europe reclaimed its role as the “balancing market” for surplus Atlantic LNG.
- Asia’s pull weakened: China’s imports fell 8.9 Mt (mild winter, more domestic gas, more Russian pipeline gas via Power of Siberia) even though China remained the largest single importer (69.8 Mt). Japan (67.4 Mt) and South Korea (48.7 Mt) were comparatively stable.
- Prices stayed contained: the Asian benchmark (JKM) averaged US$12.16/MMBtu, up just 2.1% on 2024, in a well-supplied, increasingly liquid market.
2. Then the ground shifted: the 2026 Middle East crisis
In early 2026, conflict in the Middle East escalated dramatically and hit the LNG market directly:
- The Strait of Hormuz closed, cutting off virtually all Qatari and UAE LNG exports — markets that together supply ~16% of global liquefaction capacity.
- Iranian missile strikes damaged two LNG trains at Qatar’s Ras Laffan complex on 18 March 2026. These are expected to be offline for 3–5 years, permanently removing 12.8 Mtpa (about 17% of Qatar’s nameplate capacity) from the near-term market.
- QatarEnergy declared force majeure on multiple contracts.
- Prices spiked hard but not catastrophically: JKM rose nearly 70% to a peak of US$25.39/MMBtu on 3 March (highest since Dec 2022); shipping rates (East of Suez) spiked from ~$14,250/day in February to a peak of $300,000/day on 5 March, before settling back near $100,000/day by late April — still well above pre-crisis levels.
- Asian buyers diverted at least 8 Atlantic cargoes away from Europe to cover the shortfall, and derivatives/spot trading volumes surged (+156–251% YoY), showing a market that — unlike in 2022 — had the liquidity and diversified supply base to absorb the shock without a full-blown crisis.
- The Golden Pass LNG project (US, QatarEnergy/ExxonMobil JV) ironically started up right in the middle of this, exporting first cargo on 22 April 2026, providing some offsetting new supply.
IGU’s framing: this is “a year that delayed rather than significantly altered” the industry’s expansion — assuming the conflict doesn’t drag on or spread further.
The complete report is available here: https://www.datocms-assets.com/146580/1783403747-igu-world-lng-report-2026.pdf
3. Investment: still bullish, despite the shock
- 68.4 Mtpa of new liquefaction capacity got the green light (FID) in 2025 — the highest since 2019, and just shy of the all-time record. Nearly all of it was in the US (Woodside Louisiana, Calcasieu Pass 2, Port Arthur Phase 2, Rio Grande Phase 2), on the back of the Trump administration lifting the pause on non-FTA export permits.
- That caps a remarkable five-year run (2021–2025): 206 Mtpa sanctioned — double the previous five years.
- Global operational liquefaction capacity: 524.5 Mtpa at end-2025 (+30.1 Mtpa), still concentrated in the US, Australia and Qatar (>50% combined).
- Floating LNG (FLNG) keeps maturing: 16.6 Mtpa operational across 8 units; Mozambique’s Coral North FLNG reached FID (doubling the country’s FLNG capacity to ~7 Mtpa); Argentina got its first-ever LNG export project sanctioned (Southern Energy FLNG, floating, fed by Vaca Muerta shale gas).
- 1,105 Mtpa remains in the “pre-FID” pipeline globally (mostly US, Canada, Russia) — but tougher project economics (thin US gas inventories, rising Henry Hub costs, cost inflation) mean only a fraction will likely convert to real projects.
- Looking to 2035: supply (existing + FID) is expected to surpass 700 Mt by 2030 (+40% over 2025) — likely causing a temporary supply glut and downward price pressure — before the market rebalances mid-2030s as demand catches up.
4. Shipping and infrastructure — the supporting cast
- LNG carrier fleet: 804 active vessels (+8.4% YoY), including 49 FSRUs — but 2025 was actually one of the weakest years for shipping economics in recent history: too many new ships chasing not enough new cargo, keeping charter rates near break-even for most of the year (a brief Q4 spike to $60–100k/day aside). The 2026 Hormuz crisis reversed that abruptly, sending rates as high as $300,000/day in early March.
- 301 vessels on order, heavily weighted toward efficient two-stroke “X-DF” propulsion, as older steam-turbine ships near retirement.
- Regasification (import) capacity: 1,113.5 Mtpa across 50 markets (+62.9 Mtpa added in 2025). China led new capacity; Egypt was the standout emerging story, adding ~15 Mtpa via three new FSRUs as it flipped from LNG exporter to major importer amid falling domestic gas output. Senegal, Bahrain, and eight further markets (Nicaragua, Iraq, Cyprus, Australia, Ghana, Russia, Bahamas, Antigua & Barbuda) are entering or about to enter the LNG import club — floating terminals (FSRUs) are the preferred low-cost, fast-to-build route in.
- LNG bunkering (ship fuel) kept expanding: fleet grew to 60 vessels; Singapore, Rotterdam and Shanghai remain the top bunkering ports; bio-LNG use grew sharply (Rotterdam’s bio-LNG volumes rose 6x) as shippers respond to EU FuelEU Maritime rules that took effect 1 January 2025.
5. The long-term picture (to 2035)
IGU’s central case: LNG’s core value proposition — flexibility, lower emissions than coal/oil, ability to back up renewables — remains intact and is reinforced, not undermined, by the 2026 crisis. Key structural themes:
- Growth drivers: electrification, data-centre/AI power demand, population growth and urbanisation in Asia/Africa.
- Opportunities: new “frontier” markets (2 new exporters and 2 new importers debuted in 2025 alone); continued FLNG expansion for stranded gas; decarbonisation tech (CCS, electric-drive compression, bio-LNG/e-methane) maturing across projects.
- Risks: chokepoint geopolitics (Hormuz, Bab el-Mandeb/Red Sea, Panama Canal drought exposure); policy whiplash between energy security and affordability; alternative supply (revived Russian pipeline gas to Europe, Power of Siberia 2 to China) that could dent import growth in specific markets.
Quick-reference numbers
| Metric | 2025 figure |
| Global LNG trade | 436.98 Mt (+6.3%) |
| Top exporter | United States — 110.7 Mt |
| Top importer | China — 69.8 Mt |
| Global liquefaction capacity | 524.5 Mtpa |
| FIDs sanctioned in 2025 | 68.4 Mtpa |
| Global regasification capacity | 1,113.5 Mtpa |
| Active LNG carrier fleet | 804 vessels |
| Average JKM price (2025) | US$12.16/MMBtu |
| Peak JKM price (Q1 2026 crisis) | US$25.39/MMBtu |
/// nCa, 8 July 2026