nCa Report
For much of the past decade, the global conversation on energy has focused on oil, natural gas and renewable power. More recently, another group of resources has moved into the spotlight: critical minerals and rare earth elements. These materials are now central to discussions on economic security, industrial policy, technological innovation and supply chain resilience, and are routinely mentioned in connection with electric vehicles, renewable energy, artificial intelligence, semiconductors, aerospace and defence.
Although “critical minerals” and “rare earths” are often used interchangeably, they describe different concepts. Understanding the distinction matters for appreciating why countries around the world — including those in Central Asia — are attracting growing attention for their mineral resources.
What are critical minerals?
Unlike gold or iron ore, “critical mineral” is not a geological classification but a strategic and economic one. A critical mineral is generally defined as one that is:
- essential for important industries or national security;
- difficult or impossible to replace in many applications; and
- vulnerable to supply disruptions because production or processing is concentrated in relatively few countries.
Different governments maintain their own lists according to national priorities. The United States, the European Union, Japan and others publish periodically updated lists that are broadly similar, though not identical. Commonly included minerals are:
| Mineral | Principal Applications |
| Lithium | Rechargeable batteries, energy storage systems |
| Copper | Electricity grids, motors, cables, electronics |
| Nickel | Electric vehicle batteries, stainless steel |
| Cobalt | Battery cathodes, aerospace alloys |
| Graphite | Battery anodes |
| Tungsten | Machine tools, aerospace, defence |
| Gallium | Semiconductors, telecommunications |
| Germanium | Fibre-optic systems, infrared optics |
| Rare earth elements | Permanent magnets, electronics, wind turbines, defence systems |
The International Energy Agency (IEA) notes that critical minerals now underpin not only clean energy technologies but also high-tech manufacturing, AI infrastructure, advanced telecommunications and aerospace industries.
Demand is expected to keep growing strongly through 2040. In its Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026 — released in July 2026 — the IEA projects that overall demand for critical minerals will nearly double by 2040 under its Stated Policies Scenario, with lithium demand rising more than threefold and demand for nickel, graphite and rare earths growing by 50 to 90 percent.
What are rare earth elements?
Rare earth elements (REEs) are a specific scientific group of seventeen metallic elements: the fifteen lanthanides, together with scandium and yttrium. Among the best known are neodymium, praseodymium, dysprosium, terbium, cerium and europium.
These elements have unique magnetic, optical and electronic properties that make them difficult to substitute in advanced technologies:
| Rare Earth Element | Typical Uses |
| Neodymium | Permanent magnets for electric vehicles and wind turbines |
| Praseodymium | High-performance magnets, aircraft engines |
| Dysprosium | Heat-resistant magnets |
| Terbium | Electronics, lighting, specialised magnets |
| Europium | Display screens and lighting technologies |
| Cerium | Catalytic converters, glass polishing |
Despite their name, rare earth elements are not necessarily rare in the Earth’s crust — several are more abundant than copper or lead.
The real challenge is that they seldom occur in economically concentrated deposits and are difficult to separate from one another.
Mining is only the first step; refining and separation require sophisticated technology, specialised chemicals and considerable technical expertise. This is why discussions about rare earths increasingly focus on processing and manufacturing capability, not just mining. The IEA notes that while new mining projects are advancing in several regions, refining and downstream manufacturing remain far more geographically concentrated — a persistent source of supply chain vulnerability.
Rare earths are only part of the story
A common misconception is that today’s strategic competition revolves exclusively around rare earths. In reality, governments are concerned with a much broader range of minerals. Copper is indispensable for expanding electricity networks. Lithium, nickel, cobalt and graphite are essential for batteries. Gallium and germanium support semiconductor manufacturing. Tungsten and titanium remain critical for aerospace and defence.
The IEA’s latest assessment identifies gallium, graphite, magnet rare earths, tungsten, cobalt and germanium among the materials facing the highest supply risk, given their strategic importance, limited substitutes and concentrated production or refining.
Why demand is increasing
The growth in demand reflects structural technological change rather than a short-term market cycle. Electric vehicles require substantially larger quantities of specialised minerals than conventional automobiles. Wind turbines depend on high-performance permanent magnets. Modern electricity grids require growing volumes of copper. Data centres supporting artificial intelligence, advanced telecommunications and semiconductor fabrication all depend on specialised mineral inputs.
According to the IEA, energy technologies drove approximately three-quarters of the increase in demand for key critical minerals in 2025, up from around 70 percent in 2024 — with digital and high-technology industries becoming an increasingly important additional driver.
Why processing matters as much as mining
Possessing mineral deposits does not automatically translate into strategic importance. A complete supply chain typically runs through exploration, mining, concentration, chemical processing, refining, component manufacturing and final industrial products.
Many countries hold mineral resources; relatively few have built extensive refining industries.
The IEA observes that while mining capacity is expanding across a wider range of regions, refining and downstream manufacturing remain heavily concentrated — and in most mineral supply chains, refining, not mining, is now the principal bottleneck to diversification.
Central Asia’s place in the picture
Central Asia is attracting growing international attention for its diverse geological resources. The region holds significant deposits — or promising prospects — of several strategically important minerals:
| Country | Notable Resources |
| Kazakhstan | Uranium, copper, chromium, rare earth occurrences, tungsten |
| Uzbekistan | Copper, tungsten, molybdenum, uranium, rare earth prospects |
| Kyrgyzstan | Antimony, tungsten, rare earth occurrences, gold |
| Tajikistan | Antimony, silver, tungsten, rare earth occurrences |
| Turkmenistan | Selected industrial and strategic mineral prospects, exploration continues |
Kazakhstan is the world’s leading uranium producer — Kazatomprom alone accounts for roughly 40 percent of global output, well ahead of Canada and Namibia, the next-largest producers — and the country also holds substantial copper and chromium reserves.
Uzbekistan is an important producer of copper and gold while continuing to explore additional critical mineral resources.
Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan hold notable deposits of antimony and tungsten alongside identified rare earth occurrences. Geological potential varies considerably across the region, however, and many deposits remain at the exploration or evaluation stage rather than commercial production.
How important could Central Asia become?
No major international organisation currently estimates what share of future global critical mineral demand Central Asia as a region will ultimately supply. The outcome will depend on factors beyond geology: continued exploration, investment in mining projects, environmental and regulatory approvals, development of processing and refining facilities, transport and logistics infrastructure, access to technology, and long-term commercial partnerships.
Mineral deposits represent potential, not guaranteed production.
Looking ahead
The growing international interest in critical minerals reflects structural changes in the global economy — electrification, digitalisation, artificial intelligence and advanced manufacturing are all increasing demand for specialised materials. For Central Asia, this presents both opportunity and challenge. The region holds important geological assets, but their long-term significance will depend as much on what happens above ground: the ability to build processing industries, attract investment, strengthen infrastructure and move into higher-value segments of global supply chains.
As the IEA has repeatedly emphasised, the future of critical minerals is no longer simply about mining. It is increasingly about building resilient, diversified and technologically sophisticated supply chains capable of supporting the industries of the twenty-first century. /// nCa, 27 July 2026