Tariq Saeedi
There is widespread dramatization of the Wuhan virus saga. Some of it is driven by political and economic aspirations and some of it is the product of the irresponsibility that is the hallmark of the social media.
It has become a fire on which everyone is roasting their own marshmallows.
First, let’s consider the severity of the threat.
There is no doubt that the strain of the coronavirus that started from Wuhan city of China is a global threat. However, there is also the need to keep in view the perspective.
This graphic is slightly old – as of 30 January 2020 – and the current figures are higher but the fact that is highlighted by this comparison is undeniable: the risk of death for those who contract the Wuhan virus is just about 2%. Look at this graphic again and see the fatality risk for other viruses.
Some people are just gloating. For example, Wilbur Ross, the commerce secretary of the USA said on 30 January 2020 that the deadly virus originating in China would cause companies to reconsider their global supply chains and ultimately “help to accelerate” the return of jobs to the United States.
Some people are happily estimating that the Wuhan virus could cause USD 65 billion, possibly more, of economic damage to China.
Some are dreaming of a future where China would be bogged down by medical emergencies, leaving the field to the same old players.
The social media is brimming with sick (pun definitely intended) and tasteless jokes.
Some politicians are scoring points with their voters by sending military planes to evacuate their citizens.
This is just political gimmick. The time-tested principle is that in case of an epidemic the people who are there, should remain there, and those who are not there, should not travel to that place unless absolutely necessary. This is containment by quarantine.
Some necessary decisions by the Chinese authorities were delayed because of the insufficient data to evaluate the enormity of the threat.
However, that has been made up by what is being done now. An empty building was turned into a hospital for 1000 patients within two days. A new hospital for 1000 patients was built right from scratch within ten days.
As to how quickly this virus can be contained will depend on how effectively the Chinese authorities can identify, isolate and put into quarantine the people who were at risk and may have contracted the virus.
The incubation period of this virus is believed to be 6 to 14 days. It means that when most of the people at risk have been brought into quarantine under medical supervision, it will take 2-4 weeks to say with some certainty that the virus has been contained. We are looking at a timeline that will possibly run into weeks, not months.
The long term impact on China cannot be quantified at this stage.
Nonetheless, there is an important indicator of whether a nation is on the rise or in a state of decline: Has the calamity strengthened unity in the nation, or has it induced fragmentation?
More than six thousand medical professionals including the topnotch doctors and nurses have arrived in Wuhan as volunteers.
People are sending medical supplies from all over China, spending their own savings to add to the national effort.
The people in the quarantined city are shouting slogans to cheer and encourage each other.
It is a nation determined to deal with this threat decisively. /// nCa, 3 February 2020