Fitch Ratings has affirmed Turkmenistan’s Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating at ‘BB-‘ with a Stable Outlook.
Key Takeaways & Highlights from the rating commentary:
- Strong External Balance Sheet: Turkmenistan maintains exceptionally strong net foreign assets among ‘BB’ and ‘B’ category peers, which are projected to reach 59.3% of GDP by 2027.
- Exceptional External Reserves: FX reserves cover an average of 46 months of current external payments in 2026–2027, the highest coverage ratio among all Fitch-rated sovereigns.
- Stable Gas Sector & Major Expansion: Gas production remains steady with solid long-term demand from China. Domestic financing of $5.1 billion was fully secured to launch Phase 4 development at the Galkynysh gas field in April 2026, which will add 10 billion cubic meters (bcm) to annual production capacity.
- Solid Fiscal Buffers: The Turkmenistan Stabilisation Fund recorded an outstanding balance of 27.6 billion TMT (10.2% of GDP) at end-2025.
Among the factors that could lead to a rating upgrade, the agency highlights an improvement in governance standards, the availability and reliability of economic data, enhanced consistency of economic policy, and further improvement in external and public-sector balance sheets—for instance, reflecting persistently high prices for key hydrocarbon exports and increased export capacity. The full text of the Rating Action Commentary is available here: https://www.fitchratings.com/research/sovereigns/fitch-affirms-turkmenistan-at-bb-outlook-stable-22-07-2026 /// nCa, 23 July 2026