At the international scientific and practical conference “Environmental Aspects of Implementing Innovative Technologies in the Development of Hydrocarbon Fields” (TESC 2025) in Ashgabat, Steven Travers, Regional Director of Gaffney Cline, delivered a presentation titled “Tomorrow’s Energy Will Be Defined by Today’s Thoughts.” The first session, themed “New Energy Perspectives, New Technologies, and Environmental Aspects in the Development of Hydrocarbon Resources”, set the stage for critical discussions on the future of global energy.
Travers emphasized the high uncertainty surrounding the energy mix in 2050, as countries strive to balance sustainability and decarbonization goals with energy security and affordability. While a wide range of scenarios exists, renewables are poised to become the dominant energy source in nearly all projections, driven by the electrification of power, transport, heating, and commercial sectors. Coal is expected to see the steepest decline in its share of the energy mix, followed by oil.
IEA’s Stated Energy Policies Scenario (STEPS)
Under the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) STEPS scenario, which assumes current policies continue, fossil fuels will still account for over 50% of the energy mix in 2050. Key shifts include:
- Oil share reduced by 6%
- Gas share reduced by 2%
IEA’s Announced Pledges Scenario (APS)
In contrast, the IEA’s APS scenario, where all current climate commitments by governments and industry are fulfilled, projects renewables to supply over 50% of energy. Fossil fuels would still constitute approximately 35% of the mix, but with sharper declines:
- Oil share reduced by 15%
- Gas share reduced by 9%
The speaker highlighted that natural gas demand is expected to remain robust, growing in the short to medium term and not peaking until the late 2030s. Unlike oil and coal, gas demand is anticipated to plateau for many years post-peak. Key drivers include its role in the electricity sector as a backup to renewables and its use in low-carbon industrial heating, such as switching from coal.
Oil demand has continued to grow since the COVID-19 market shock, though at a slower pace. Most scenarios predict a peak around 2030, followed by a decline driven by:
- Rising electric vehicle (EV) sales, reducing road transportation demand
- Efficiency improvements
- Electrification of oil and gas operations
Travers also noted a shift in the center of gravity for oil demand, moving eastward to Asia and Africa.
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The TESC 2025 conference, with its focus on new technologies and environmental considerations in hydrocarbon development, served as a critical platform for advancing sustainable energy solutions.
The session 1 reviewed such topics as:
- Energy Outlook: Examining the evolving global energy landscape and the future role of hydrocarbons.
- Tech Innovations: Showcasing advancements in hydrocarbon exploration, extraction, and processing.
- Ecological Impact: Addressing the environmental concerns and mitigation strategies for hydrocarbon development. ///nCa, 5 June 2025