UNCTAD has issued its Global Trade Update (December 2022). The global trade is estimated to have reached almost USD 32 trillion.
The global trade growth turned negative during the second half of the year.
The report is available at this link:
The trade in goods was expected to have reached USD 25 trillion, and services USD 7 trillion.
The demand for foreign goods remained resilient.
Overall, “geopolitical frictions, persisting inflation, and lower global demand are expected to negatively affect global trade during 2023”, said UNCTAD in its report highlights.
According to UN News:
Among the negative factors teased out, are lower economic growth forecast through 2023 due to high energy prices, rising interest rates, sustained inflation in many economies and the depressive impact of the war in Ukraine.
Prices of components and consumer goods are expected to dampen demand for imports and lead to a declining volume of international trade.
Record levels of global debt and increased interest rates, “pose significant concerns for debt sustainability”, increasing pressure on those governments most in debt, and “amplifying vulnerabilities”.
UN News story:
On the upside, ports and shipping companies have adjusted to the supply chain crunch provoked by the COVID-19 pandemic, with new ships entering service, and port congestion, largely resolved, said UNCTAD.
Recently signed trade agreements such as the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership in the Asia-Pacific (RCEP), and the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), “should come to fruition and provide some momentum” for the whole international system, the report highlights.
Risk and uncertainty continue to be high for global supply chains overall, but efforts towards forging a greener global economy, are expected to spur demand for environmentally sustainable products, said UNCTAD, while reducing the demand for goods with high carbon content, and for fossil fuels. /// nCa, 23 January 2023