Tariq Saeedi and Elvira Kadyrova
The Beijing visit and the Ashgabat forum of March 2026 mark a new phase in a relationship that has been quietly, but steadily, reshaping Central Asia’s economic geography
When Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov, the National Leader of the Turkmen people and Chairman of the Halk Maslahaty, arrived in Beijing in the third week of March 2026, it was not simply a courtesy call.
The visit was dense with substance — a summit with President Xi Jinping, a separate meeting with CNPC’s leadership, a session with Foreign Minister Wang Yi, a stop at an equestrian complex, and a carefully calibrated interview with CGTN — all of it set against the backdrop of a Nowruz coinciding, symbolically enough, with the final day of the Chinese New Year. Both sides noted the overlap. In the language of diplomacy, such moments are made to count.
Meanwhile, back in Ashgabat, over twenty Chinese companies were participating in the IFT 2026 international forum and exhibition, covering a range that ran from seed production and agricultural technology to information technology.
Taken together — the high-level political engagement in Beijing and the business-level presence in Ashgabat — the week offered an unusually clear picture of where the Turkmenistan-China partnership currently stands and where it is heading.
A Relationship Defined by Gas, Now Reaching Beyond It
The foundation of the Turkmenistan-China relationship has always been natural gas. Since the pipeline linking the two countries was commissioned in December 2009, Turkmenistan has been sending approximately 40 billion cubic meters of gas to China annually. [newscentralasia]
By March 2026, nearly 460 billion cubic meters of natural gas had been delivered via that pipeline — a cumulative figure that few energy partnerships in the world can match. [newscentralasia]
But the energy dimension is no longer static. The agreements reached during the visit on the next stage of the Galkynysh field development were highlighted as a central element of the discussions [newscentralasia], and separately, CNPC won an international tender to develop the fourth phase of that same field — one of the world’s largest gas deposits — with the aim of adding another 10 billion cubic meters per year to Turkmen export capacity.
Plans are in place to increase annual gas export volumes to 65 billion cubic meters overall [newscentralasia], which would represent a significant step up from the current baseline.
What gives the energy relationship its particular quality is not just volume but duration and depth. The year 2026 marks the 20th anniversary of cooperation between Turkmenistan and CNPC [newscentralasia], and Berdimuhamedov proposed commemorating that milestone with an international scientific and practical conference — a gesture that signals a desire to institutionalize the relationship further, not simply renew contracts.
CNPC, for its part, stated that it intends to go beyond consolidating existing cooperation and pursue, in its own words, breakthroughs in new areas, explicitly framing this within the alignment between China’s Belt and Road Initiative and Turkmenistan’s “Revival of the Great Silk Road” strategy.
The Trade Picture: Twenty-Fold Growth
The energy sector, dominant as it is, does not tell the whole economic story. — China is Turkmenistan’s largest trading partner, and since 2007 bilateral trade turnover has increased twenty-fold, currently reaching $9–10 billion annually. [newscentralasia]
That is a remarkable trajectory for a landlocked country of seven million people, and it reflects a deliberate strategic choice on Ashgabat’s part to orient its economic ties heavily eastward.
The transport sector offers one illustration of how deep Chinese commercial presence has become: approximately 90% of the locomotives and railcars operating on Turkmenistan’s railways are Chinese-made. [newscentralasia]
A partnership that began with a gas pipeline has extended into the sinews of everyday infrastructure. The IFT 2026 forum in Ashgabat — with Chinese companies spanning agriculture, technology, and industry — suggests that this commercial presence is continuing to broaden, moving well beyond the energy sector that initially defined the relationship.
Logistics: The New Frontier
One of the genuinely new areas of emphasis in this round of engagement is logistics and connectivity. The National Leader emphasized that aligning Turkmenistan’s “Revival of the Great Silk Road” strategy with China’s Belt and Road Initiative opens new opportunities for cooperation in transport and logistics. [newscentralasia] This is not a new theme in Turkmen foreign policy, but the specifics are becoming more concrete.
Berdimuhamedov noted in his CGTN interview that both countries possess all necessary conditions to develop trade communications across the Caspian Sea, with access to the Persian Gulf and the Indian Ocean. [newscentralasia]
This speaks to Turkmenistan’s broader ambition to serve as a transit corridor connecting China with markets to the south and west — a vision that, when realized, would fundamentally transform the country’s economic role in the region.
At the same time, the TAPI pipeline — connecting Turkmenistan to Afghanistan, Pakistan and India — was mentioned during the CNPC talks as another dimension of strategic regional connectivity that both sides view as significant.
Political Alignment and the Geometry of Neutrality
The political dimension of the visit was handled with the care that characterizes Turkmen diplomacy. Ashgabat’s constitutionally enshrined neutrality means it does not join alliances, but it does engage in carefully calibrated political support.
Relations between the two countries are advancing to the level of a comprehensive strategic partnership, gaining new substance across foreign policy, economy and trade, culture, science, education, and inter-parliamentary dialogue. [newscentralasia]
Turkmenistan remains firmly committed to the “One China” policy, while China consistently supports Turkmenistan’s neutrality and its international initiatives. [newscentralasia] This is a well-established exchange, but it carries practical weight: China’s backing at the United Nations provides Turkmenistan with a degree of international cover, while Turkmenistan’s position in Central Asia — and its gas — gives China strategic assets it values.
Foreign Minister Wang Yi, meeting with Turkmen Deputy Prime Minister Rashid Meredov on the sidelines of the visit, stated that the top leaders of the two countries share firm mutual trust and profound friendship, and that this provides crucial strategic guidance for the steady development of the comprehensive strategic partnership. [newscentralasia] He also noted, with some significance, that both sides would coordinate preparations for the third China-Central Asia Summit — a multilateral format that is itself becoming an increasingly important platform for Chinese engagement with the region.
New Areas: Technology, Culture, Agriculture
What is genuinely new in the current phase of the relationship — as opposed to what is being deepened and scaled — is the breadth of sectors now entering the agenda.
Xi Jinping expressed confidence that projects to establish “Lu Ban Workshops” and a center for traditional Chinese medicine will soon be implemented in Turkmenistan, and confirmed readiness to develop ties in education, intellectual property experience-sharing, and horse breeding. [newscentralasia]
Noting the high ecological quality of Turkmen agricultural products, the Chinese leader also expressed interest in intensifying agricultural partnership, including through supplies of high-performance equipment, the introduction of water-saving technologies, and green energy. [newscentralasia]
These are not marginal items; they point toward a relationship that is beginning to engage with Turkmenistan’s domestic development agenda rather than simply extracting its hydrocarbons.
More than 10,000 citizens of Turkmenistan are currently studying in Chinese educational institutions, and the Chinese language is taught in 9 higher education institutions and 10 secondary schools in Turkmenistan. [newscentralasia]
Human capital ties at this scale create a long-term foundation for the relationship that outlasts any particular contract or diplomatic cycle.
The Horse and the Meaning Behind It
Some of the most telling moments in diplomacy are the informal ones. At the conclusion of the summit meeting, an Akhal-Teke stallion named Gadyrly was presented to Xi Jinping on behalf of the President of Turkmenistan.
Xi expressed deep gratitude and quoted two Turkmen proverbs — “A horse is a realized goal” and “Where a horse rolls, there will be a celebration” — noting that the gift was an honor not only for him personally but for the entire Chinese people.
He also recalled that twelve years earlier he had received an Akhal-Teke horse named Gahryman. [newscentralasia]
The exchange has layers. — The Akhal-Teke is Turkmenistan’s most potent national symbol — the emblem on the country’s coat of arms, the focus of its equestrian culture, the thread connecting its present identity to its ancient nomadic heritage.
Giving one to a head of state is a gesture of genuine intimacy, not protocol.
The fact that Xi Jinping knew the name of the horse he received twelve years ago, and cited Turkmen proverbs in response, suggests that these personal dimensions of the relationship are cultivated with some seriousness on the Chinese side as well.
What This Round of Engagement Signals
Standing back from the individual events of the week — the summit, the CNPC meeting, the Wang Yi–Meredov talks, the Ashgabat forum, the CGTN interview — a coherent picture emerges.
The Turkmenistan-China relationship is moving through a transition from a bilateral partnership built essentially on one commodity (gas) and one company (CNPC) to something more diversified and more institutionally embedded.
The gas relationship is being deepened, not replaced.
The fourth phase of Galkynysh development and the goal of 65 billion cubic meters of annual exports represent a significant scaling up of the existing model. But alongside it, a broader economic relationship is taking shape: in logistics and transit corridors, in agriculture and water-saving technology, in education and cultural exchange, and in the commercial presence of Chinese companies across Turkmenistan’s domestic economy.
Politically, both sides find the relationship useful. China gains a reliable energy supplier, a transit corridor toward markets to its west, and a partner in a region where its influence is growing. Turkmenistan gains its most important trade partner, consistent diplomatic support for its neutral status, and access to capital and technology at a scale no other partner currently offers.
The relationship is not without its structural asymmetries — Turkmenistan is a small, landlocked country dealing with a continental power — but the Turkmen leadership has consistently managed those asymmetries with care, maintaining multiple diplomatic channels and avoiding the kind of total dependence that would reduce its room to maneuver.
The invitation extended to Xi Jinping to visit Turkmenistan at a convenient time is, in this context, a quiet signal that Ashgabat sees reciprocity as an important principle of the relationship, not just gratitude for Chinese investment.
What March 2026 has shown is a partnership that knows where it has been, has a clear sense of where it wants to go, and is willing to invest — in meetings, in contracts, in cultural gestures, and in the patient work of building shared institutions — to get there. /// nCa, 23 March 2026