Executive Summary
The Termez Dialogue, held from May 19 to 21, 2025, in Termez, Uzbekistan, convened approximately 200 delegates from over 20 countries to enhance economic, cultural, and security ties between Central and South Asia.
Organized by Uzbekistan’s Institute for Strategic and Interregional Studies, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and Chamber of Commerce and Industry, the forum emphasized infrastructure projects like the Trans-Afghan Corridor, trade expansion, and Afghanistan’s regional integration.
Despite challenges such as security risks and geopolitical tensions, the Dialogue established a platform for ongoing cooperation, concluding with a joint communiqué reaffirming shared goals of peace and prosperity.
Historical and Strategic Context
- Termez’s Role: A historic trade and cultural hub along the Uttarapatha route, Termez is modernizing as Uzbekistan’s “southern gateway” with projects like the Airtom International Trade Center and Termez-Cargo Centre, which has facilitated over 144,000 tonnes of humanitarian aid since 2021.
- Uzbekistan’s Vision: Builds on the 2021 Central-South Asia Conference and 2022 UN resolution, led by President Shavkat Mirziyoyev, to deepen regional connectivity amid global instability.
Key Objectives
- Economic Integration: Boosting the $5 billion trade turnover (2024) through simplified procedures and infrastructure.
- Infrastructure Development: Prioritizing the $5 billion Trans-Afghan Corridor railway, CASA-1000, and TAPI.
- Security Cooperation: Integrating Afghanistan into regional security frameworks.
- Cultural Ties: Leveraging Termez’s legacy for intercultural dialogue.
Participants
- High-Level Attendees: Included UNAMA’s Roza Otunbayeva, UN’s Kakha Imnadze, and experts from Chatham House, Central Asia-Caucasus Institute, and India’s Observer Research Foundation.
- Regional Representation: Central Asian deputy foreign ministers showed strong engagement, while South Asian participation was limited due to the India-Pakistan crisis (April-May 2025).
Economic and Infrastructure Highlights
- Trade Potential: Central-South Asia trade ($5 billion) lags behind Central Asia-EU trade ($55 billion). Simplified procedures and new corridors are critical.
- Trans-Afghan Corridor: A railway from Termez to Peshawar, doubling cargo volumes (1.8M to 4M tonnes, 2021-2024), aims to connect Central Asia to Indian Ocean ports.
- Other Projects: CASA-1000, TAPI, and $2.5 billion Uzbek-Afghan agreements in energy and agriculture.
- Challenges: Mountainous terrain, security risks, and transit visa issues.
Afghanistan’s Integration
- Taliban’s Stance: Deputy Foreign Minister Mohammad Naeem Wardak emphasized Afghanistan’s readiness for regional projects in trade, energy, and education, seeking recognition as a “reliable partner.”
- Uzbekistan’s Strategy: Promoting “regionalization” to involve Afghanistan in socio-economic projects despite its unrecognized status.
Security Imperatives
- Regional Stability: UNAMA’s Otunbayeva stressed Afghanistan’s inclusion in security mechanisms to combat terrorism and attract investment.
- External Challenges: Reduced U.S. aid (down 30%) and India-Pakistan tensions highlight the need for regional security dialogue.
Outcomes
- Joint Communiqué: Reaffirmed commitment to trust, cooperation, and prosperity.
- Ongoing Platform: The Dialogue will serve as a recurring forum to shape interregional integration.
Challenges and Future Prospects
- Security Risks: Instability in Afghanistan and Pakistan, plus India-Pakistan tensions, could derail projects.
- Geopolitical Dynamics: Competition among Central Asian states and external powers may complicate initiatives, as noted by researcher Nargiza Umarova.
- Economic Potential: South Asia’s 5.9% growth (2025 projection) offers opportunities, but infrastructure and trade barriers must be addressed.
Conclusion
The Termez Dialogue 2025 positioned Termez as a modern hub for Central-South Asia connectivity, leveraging its historical legacy and Uzbekistan’s strategic leadership. By prioritizing infrastructure, trade, and security, the forum laid a foundation for a unified regional space. Sustained efforts to address challenges will be critical to realizing the vision of peace, prosperity, and stability. /// nCa, 22 May 2025