The global response to climate change is at a crossroads. The IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Report summary for policy makers notes that it is “more likely than not” that global average temperatures will surpass 1.5C in coming years. As the impacts of climate change threaten to become increasingly severe, it is vital to accelerate action with a comprehensive and holistic understanding of human mobility. Human mobility is deeply intertwined with all of the key dimensions of climate and adaptation policy, action and implementation. But a step-change is required to adopt ways of thinking and acting with a forward-looking perspective. Against this backdrop, this paper highlights how futures-thinking, foresight and forecasting can be mobilized to address the challenges that lies ahead for human mobility in contexts of climate change.
STEPPING UP ACTION ON CLIMATE CHANGE AND HUMAN MOBILITY
An extensive array of international agreements and frameworks attest to the urgency of addressing climate change and human mobility together. But a step-change is needed in the scale of action and the pace of change.
Global action on climate change and human mobility has to be proactive and forward-looking. It has to prepare for and anticipate the changes that are to come. And it has to identify in advance which groups and communities will be worst affected and are most at risk and are likely to move, or will be unable to move, over short and long-term time horizons. This information needs to reach policymakers, practitioners and donors in order to inform policies, actions and investments. And the whole process must accelerate to quickly pilot and scale-up effective action to increase the scope of options available to the individuals, households and communities affected by climate change, including the most vulnerable. There is no time to lose.
IOM is there to help: the Organization is deeply committed to working together with diverse partners to offer effective and innovative responses. The policy paper “Thinking about Tomorrow, Acting Today: The Future of Climate Mobility” puts forward a menu of actions which can be implemented today, to not only address climate mobility that is already taking place but also to better prepare for and anticipate the impacts of climate change on the movement of people in the future. It highlights the breadth of opportunities which are already to hand for taking action now to prepare for tomorrow.
The actions proposed cover a three-pronged approach to tackle climate mobility comprehensively. This includes, first of all, solutions for people to move, promoting migration as adaptation to climate change and ensuring that those who choose to move can do so in a safe, orderly and regular manner, whilst enhancing the positive impacts of their mobility for themselves, their families and communities of origin and destination. This involves integrating more strategic and humane mobility policies into regional and national adaptation plans. Secondly, there is a set of solutions for people on the move, ensuring that those who have moved are provided with necessary support and assistance, including through comprehensive humanitarian programming. Finally, there are solutions supporting people to stay by offering options for remaining in areas of origin in a dignified manner and reducing forced displacement. These three avenues of action are interlinked, for example positive impacts of migration can be a powerful factor in enabling in situ adaptation and reducing forced displacement.
PRECONDITIONS FOR SUCCESS
However, delivery requires greater technical capacity and sustainable resources. Existing climate funding arrangements rarely consider issues of mobility. Investors, including the private sector, need to support forward-looking and innovative solutions that will create change where it is most needed. Climate finance must have human mobility integrated throughout. As States discuss modalities to create a new fund for loss and damage, there is an historic opportunity to embed climate mobility into the mechanism from the outset and thereby to provide the much-needed impetus for climate mobility action in countries that are particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change.
Global cooperation and partnerships must continue and expand across different sectors and among diverse stakeholders, with the inclusion of migrants and local communities most vulnerable to climate change. The international community needs to come together to harness the power of migration for effective climate response and for climate resilient development before time runs out.
Full report “Thinking about Tomorrow, Acting Today: The Future of Climate Mobility” is available here: https://publications.iom.int/books/thinking-about-tomorrow-acting-today-future-climate-mobility ///nCa, 10 October 2023