Before throwing the lasso around the horns of the devil in the basement, let’s run another check on the ISIS scare in Central Asia.
The only media speaking with any pretension of authority is RFERL, seconded zealously by a growing assortment of officials and ‘analysts’ around the region and Russia.
According to them, the maximum number of ISIS fighters gathered at the doors of Central Asia is around 4000 but no more.
Now, let’s accept this figure for a minute and also assume that all of them are able bodies, well trained fighters, armed with light weapons because no one has asserted that they have tanks, APCs, helicopters, fighter jets, bombers, or nuclear weapons.
Also from the RFERL reports, we know the precise locations, down to village names, of where this ISIS army is sitting and cooking a plot to overrun Central Asia.
The situation thus is that there are some 4000 armed and dangerous rogues at known locations and everyone knows that they are about to drown the whole of Central Asia in a bloodbath, presumably with the purpose of establishing and running indefinitely an Islamic caliphate in this region.
The natural reaction would have been to try and neutralize this threat before it erupts.
There are still about 20000 US-NATO troops in Afghanistan. How many of them have been deployed to face the ISIS army at the edge of Central Asia?
The Afghan national army, one of the best equipped in the region and trained by some of the best instructors in the world, is 150000 strong. How many of them have been mobilized to crush ISIS before it comes to full bloom here?
The Afghan paramilitary forces – ALP and militias – created, trained, equipped and financed by the US are in large numbers, possibly a couple of hundred thousand. How many of them have been moved to the borders of Central Asia to do battle with ISIS?
The several dozen warlords, many of them in powerful positions in the Afghan government, are capable of raising armies of their own at short notice. How many of the warlords have vowed to come charging next week and bulldoze ISIS?
Virtually every household in Afghanistan has some kind of weapons and every male citizen knows how to use them. How many of the concerned citizens have banded together to form their own resistance force to defy ISIS? — (No jokes, our beloved Bruce Pennier of RFERL reports that some 120 ethnic Turkmens of Afghanistan with their antiquated Lee Enfield rifles are safeguarding the whole Eurasian landmass against ISIS, and they have the capacity to attack Turkmenistan too)
This lie will not die because it is being fed systematically with a purpose. However, it is possible to cripple it down a bit to slow its speed.
Taken together, the US-NATO forces in Afghanistan, the Afghan national army, the ALP and militias, the reserve armies of major warlords (notably Dostem, Ismail Khan, Ustad Atta and Gul Agha Sherzai), and the citizens of Afghanistan with some kinds of fire arms, we are talking of several million people who have the capacity to come forward and swat ISIS like a fly in the corner.
There is no action so far, simply because there is no ISIS so far.
It would be futile for the other side to argue that ISIS army is in the hiding as yet. They should have thought about it before triggering RFERL reports about the locations of ISIS.
Moreover, there is the sharp eye in the sky. The satellites, drones, surveillance airplanes, are all in abundance and capable of giving real time progress of even a lone jeep moving in the open terrain.
There is also the question as to where these 4000 ISIS fighters live? Either they must pitch tents or displace the local residents but neither any tent settlements have been spotted nor have there been any reports of mass displacements of villagers on account of ISIS.
Is it possible that only the people working for RFERL can see them and no one else can?
Is it possible that the 4000 ISIS soldiers live in the trees or under the open sky?
What do they eat? How will they ensure their logistic support when the battle starts?
In every case of successful insurgency, the local population, or at least a significant part of the local population, provides crucial support and corridor for supply lines. Who in the border region between Afghanistan and Central Asia do that for ISIS? Who will maintain uninterrupted supply of food and ammunition? Who will give them corridors for strategic retreat, safe haven for regrouping and
These areas and people are decidedly hostile to the very idea of ISIS. Unless the ISIS planners have gone bonkers, it is difficult to see as to how an ISIS uprising could be successful here.
Therefore, it is essential to double underline that there is currently no ISIS presence in any significant numbers on the Afghan borders of Central Asia.
And, that makes the game very dangerous.
To be continued …