Global gas demand will reach almost 4.3 trillion cubic meters by 2024, that is 7% higher than the pre-pandemic levels, says a new edition of IEA’s Gas Market Report.
Global gas demand dropped by 1.9%, or 75 billion cubic meters, in 2020 due to the exceptionally mild winter in the northern hemisphere and the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic. According to the IEA forecasts, global demand will rebound by 3.6% in 2021.
The growth of gas demand will be driven by China, India, as well as the emerging markets in South and Southeast Asia, caused by economic activity and transition from coal and oil to cleaner gases.
“The rebound in gas demand shows that the global economy is recovering from the shock of the pandemic and that gas is continuing to replace more emissions-intensive fuels,” said Keisuke Sadamori, the IEA’s Director of Energy Markets and Security.
The report asserts that Turkmenistan leads the production growth in Central Asia, while the production potential appears more limited for Kazakhstan. Another Central Asian gas producer, Uzbekistan, will face severe upstream issues, which will result in the expected suspension of gas exports by 2025. (the country has already stopped exports to Russia in mid-2020).
Pipeline supplies from Central Asia to China are estimated at 40-45 billion cubic meters per year during the forecast period. The figures are low compared to 2019, because higher pipeline deliveries from Turkmenistan (up by 8%) will be offset by declining expоrt flows from Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan.
The full text of the report “Gas market Report, Q3-2021 ” is available here: https://www.iea.org/reports/gas-market-report-q3-2021
In accordance with the Concept of development of the fuel and energy complex of Kazakhstan until 2030, the country will cut the commercial gas production to 26.6 bcm by 2025. The internal consumption is expected to grow to 24.4 bcm because of the ongoing gasification and downstream projects. For these reasons, exports will steadily decrease.
Last year, Uzbekistan announced plans to stop gas exports by 2025 in order to set up full domestic processing and boost value-added production. /// nCa, 7 July 2021