Central Asia stands at the threshold of a historic demographic window that could trigger decades of accelerated economic growth – but only if governments act now to invest heavily in their young people, warns a major new UNICEF regional report.
Titled “Generation 2050: Investing in Tomorrow, Today”, the study reveals that more than half the population of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan is currently under 30 – making the region one of the youngest in Eurasia at a time when the rest of the world is ageing rapidly.
By mid-century the five countries will be home to almost 112 million people, up from 84 million today and just 56 million in 2000. Tajikistan’s population is projected to grow by nearly double, while Uzbekistan will add more than 15 million citizens.
This youthful demographic profile offers Central Asia a rare ‘demographic dividend’ – a surge in the working-age population that, if properly equipped, can drive extraordinary economic progress, the report states. Miss this opportunity, however, and the region risks of unemployment, inequality and lost potential will rise sharply.
Narrow Window of Opportunity
The region currently enjoys a historically low dependency ratio of around 60 dependants for every 100 working-age adults. That favourable ratio will begin to worsen after 2040 as the population ages. The next 10–15 years are therefore make-or-break.
According to World Bank data cited in the report, children born today in Central Asia are on track to fulfil only 50–60 % of their productive potential due to inadequate education, healthcare and nutrition.
Without urgent reforms, the economic dividend could turn into a demographic burden.
Migration, Urbanisation and Climate Pressures
Large-scale labour migration – especially from Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan – is already separating millions of children from their parents, affecting emotional well-being, school performance and social integration. Many ageing migrants are expected to return home in the coming decades, further straining pension and health systems.
By 2050, 60.5 % of Central Asians will live in cities, yet urban infrastructure – water, sanitation, transport and hospitals – is struggling to keep pace, particularly in the fast-growing capitals of Tashkent, Dushanbe and Bishkek.
Climate change is adding new urgency: glacier melt, chronic water shortages and increasingly frequent heatwaves are already displacing communities and threatening agricultural livelihoods in Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan.
What Must Be Done
The report stresses that roughly two-thirds of the region’s future economic growth will depend on today’s investments in human capital. Priority actions include:
- Universal access to quality early-childhood and secondary education
- Modern healthcare and nutrition for children and adolescents
- Stronger social-protection systems for families
- Skills training and job-creation programmes, with special attention to girls and young women
- Massive expansion of water, sanitation and climate-resilient urban services
If Central Asia seizes this moment and equips its youthful population with education, health and opportunity, the region can achieve a transformative economic leap. If it fails, the demographic gift of Generation 2050 risks becoming a missed historic opportunity. /// nCa, 27 November 2025 (originally published by UN News https://news.un.org/ru/story/2025/11/1466915, photo credit – UNICEF)