Michael Liesfeldt, Research Director, Chemicals, S&P Global Commodity Insights, presented an analysis of current global trends at the International OGT 2025 Conference in Ashgabat, emphasizing the stable and continuously growing demand for chemical products, especially polymers, despite transformation in other energy sectors.
Chemicals as the Main Growth Driver
While the gasoline sector is losing relevance due to the widespread adoption of electric vehicles (for example, “every second car in China is now an electric vehicle,” as Liesfeldt stated), demand in the chemical industry demonstrates steady growth.
According to Liesfeldt’s forecasts, over the next 20 years, demand for chemicals will not peak. Moreover, the demand for chemical polymers is growing even faster than the global GDP.
Key Plastic Markets: Polyethylene is the largest plastic market in the world, and Polypropylene is the second largest plastic market.
Plastic thus remains the main driver of growth for the chemical industry and global demand.
New Markets: India and Africa
The S&P Global Commodity Insights analyst pointed out the enormous potential for polymer consumption growth in developing regions. By 2030, India and African countries will be home to 40% of the world’s population.
Comparing consumption, Liesfeldt cited the following statistics:
- Global per capita consumption of polyethylene is 15 kg per year.
- Consumption in India and Africa is only 5 kg per year.
This low level of consumption indicates significant opportunities for companies operating in the polymer market. The speaker emphasized that market players must view India and Africa as priority destinations.
The China Factor: Self-Sufficiency and Low Construction Cost
China holds a special place in the global polymer market, being a “champion of self-sufficiency.”
Despite the fact that large volumes of polyethylene (about 70%) are still exported to China, its investment strategy is aimed at achieving independence from imports, even if this is associated with a higher cost of production, Liesfeldt stressed.
A key advantage for China is the low cost of constructing petrochemical plants. Liesfeldt noted that compared to the cost of construction in the US (factor 1), this figure in China is only 0.46. This means that building a similar plant in China costs about 60% less.
Conclusion for Producers
Michael Liesfeldt summarized that for countries and companies with access to oil and gas (which serve as feedstock for petrochemicals), it makes vital sense to participate in the chemical industry, given the guaranteed and long-term growth in demand for polymers worldwide. ///nCa, 23 October 2025