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The Surging LNG Era: Global Market Growth Amid Geopolitical Shifts

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nCa Report

Overall Growth in the LNG Market

The global liquefied natural gas (LNG) market expanded significantly in 2025, with trade volumes reaching an estimated 422.8-429 million tonnes (MT), up 3.9-4% from 2024’s 411 MT.

This growth was driven by new capacity additions, particularly in the U.S., and rebounding demand in regions like Europe and emerging markets. Liquefaction capacity rose to around 494-500 million tonnes per annum (MTPA) by end-2025, with projections for further expansion to 740 MTPA by 2030, a 40% increase.

Global LNG imports are forecast to climb from 470 MT in 2026 to 580 MT by 2030, at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.3%.

Demand is expected to surge by 60% by 2040, fueled by Asia’s industrial growth, emissions reductions, and rising energy needs from AI and data centers. The market value, valued at USD 122.6 billion in 2024, is projected to reach USD 228.83 billion by 2032, growing at a CAGR of 9.95%.

Main Suppliers and Buyers

Main Suppliers (Exporters)

In 2025, the U.S., Qatar, and Australia dominated, accounting for over 60% of global supply.

  • United States: Exported a record 111 MT, the first country to surpass 100 MT, up ~23 MT from 2024, driven by new facilities like Plaquemines LNG. Capacity reached 102.3 MTPA by September 2025; set to add ~110 MTPA by 2030.
  • Qatar: Exported ~80 MT; expansions aim for 142 MTPA by 2030.
  • Australia: ~80 MT.
  • Others: Russia, Malaysia; Canada adding 14 MTPA via LNG Canada in 2025.

Main Buyers (Importers)

Asia led imports, but China’s volumes declined; Europe saw a surge.

  • Japan: ~65 MT, tied with China as top importer.
  • China: ~64-70 MT, down 10.6% from 2024 due to higher domestic production and weak demand.
  • South Korea: Over 47 MT.
  • India: ~24-27 MT, down slightly.
  • Egypt: Surged to ~8.9 MT, up over 300%.Europe’s imports rose 30% to ~120 MT, with U.S. supplying 77.5%. Asia’s imports projected to hit 400 MT by 2030.

Shift from Pipeline Gas to LNG and Reasons

Europe’s reliance on Russian pipeline gas fell to ~5.8% of supply in 2025 (~18 bcm), down from 30% in 2021. LNG now covers 48% of EU gas needs, up from 19% in 2021. A full ban on Russian gas starts in 2027.

Reasons: Geopolitical tensions post-Ukraine invasion prompted diversification for security; EU aims to end Russian imports by 2027. LNG’s flexibility aids long-distance transport where pipelines are impractical. Globally, LNG’s trade share rises due to similar factors in Asia.

Price Impact: Additional Costs to Buyers from the Switch

The switch to LNG adds USD 2-4/MMBtu in costs for liquefaction, shipping, and regasification versus pipeline gas. In Europe, replacing Russian pipeline gas has raised prices 20-50%, hurting industrial competitiveness. U.S. prices rose 56% to $3.52/MMBtu avg in 2025 due to exports linking to global markets. Global LNG spots averaged $10-12/MMBtu in 2025 vs. Henry Hub $3.52/MMBtu. This premium strains affordability in Asia.

Has Demand Been Artificially Curbed Due to the Switch?

Yes, particularly in Europe, where high LNG prices and economic pressures reduced demand. EU consumption stabilized at 319-332 bcm in 2025, down 21% from 2021, with industrial gas use falling 21% and power 4%. China’s imports dropped 10.6% due to costs and domestic supply. Global growth slowed to <1% in 2025 from high prices. Policy-driven shifts raise costs, curbing demand, but rebound expected with supply glut.

Global Gas Market Outlook: Pipeline vs. LNG (2026-2030)

LNG will dominate, with supply growing ~250 bcm by 2030 and trade share >50% by 2029. Long-distance pipeline trade declines ~55 bcm, mainly Europe-Russia decoupling. Global demand rises 1.5-2% annually (~380 bcm growth), led by Asia (50%) and Middle East (30%); Europe drops 8-10%.

AspectPipeline GasLNG
Growth TrendDeclining: -55 bcm in long-distance trade by 2030 due to geopolitics (e.g., EU-Russia ban by 2027).Surging: +250 bcm supply by 2030; capacity +300 bcm/yr, led by U.S. (110 MTPA) and Qatar (46 MTPA). +7% growth in 2026.
Market Share<50% of global trade by 2029.>50%; more flexible, globalized.
Key DriversRegional ties; geopolitics vulnerable.Security, diversification; Asia imports (e.g., China rebound 3-10% in 2026).
Risks/OutlookSurplus regionally; sanctions easing could slow decline.Potential glut (65 bcm surplus by 2030) if demand lags; prices fall 10% in Europe/Asia.

Base scenarios assume steady growth; upsides include AI demand or tensions; downsides include renewed Russian flows. /// nCa, 20 February 2026

Sources

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