Central Asia, as a region, has shown remarkable growth across economic indicators in 2025. According to the Moderate Scenario, the region may gain the status of a Trillion Dollar Economy by 2035.
Current Economic Baseline
According to the most recent data, Central Asia’s combined GDP reached $519 billion in 2024 China Daily. The latest forecast from Evgeny Vinokurov, Chief Economist at the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB), indicates the region’s GDP is projected to exceed $600 billion in 2026 Trend.
Growth Trajectory Analysis
Central Asia has demonstrated exceptional economic performance:
- The region maintained an average real annual growth rate of 6.7% over the past two decades China Daily
- Regional GDP growth of 5.4% is projected for 2025, slowing to 5.0% in 2026 SpecialEurasia (per ADB)
- The EDB forecasts aggregate growth of 6.6% in 2025 and 6.1% in 2026 The Astana Times
Notably, forecasts suggest the combined GDP will grow to $700 billion by 2030 China Daily.
Projection to $1 Trillion
Using the available data points and conservative assumptions:
Conservative scenario (4-5% average annual growth): Starting from $600 billion in 2026, with moderate 4-5% annual growth, Central Asia would reach $1 trillion between 2035-2038.
Moderate scenario (5-6% average growth): Maintaining stronger growth momentum similar to recent performance, the region could achieve $1 trillion status by 2032-2035.
Optimistic scenario (6-7% growth): If Central Asia maintains its historical growth rates of 6-7%, it could reach $1 trillion as early as 2030-2033.
Key Factors Influencing the Timeline
The actual timeline will depend on several variables:
- Oil and commodity prices (particularly affecting Kazakhstan, which comprises 60% of regional GDP)
- Infrastructure development through the Middle Corridor and Belt and Road Initiative
- Regional cooperation on water, energy, and transport infrastructure
- Global economic conditions and trade dynamics
- Demographic dividend from the region’s young, growing population
Given the current trajectory and institutional forecasts, the most likely timeframe for Central Asia to become a trillion-dollar economy is between 2032-2036, representing a doubling from the 2024 baseline over approximately 8-12 years. ///nCa, 24 December 2025