Tariq Saeedi
This is the era of entangled risks. — There is an asymmetrical fusion of Traditional and Non-Traditional Security Threats facing Central Asia.
Traditional Security (TS) Threats are conventional, state-centric, military-focused risks, such as wars, border disputes, and invasions, threatening state sovereignty. Non-Traditional Security (NTS) Threats are trans-national, non-military, or non-state challenges that threaten human survival, including climate change, pandemics, cyber-attacks, and terrorism.
The TS threats to Central Asia are imminent but not direct. They are mainly in the Cause-and-Effect domain.
The prime reason for the brewing TS Threats is that someone is putting more on their plate than they can possibly chew. And, there are doubts whether whatever they are putting on their plate is palatable at all?
Moreover, some of what is being heaped onto the plate would inevitably spill on the floor and someone else would have to do the mopping.
Unleashing the chaos is easy; the hardest part is rolling it back
At the core of these yet-unquantified TS Threats to Central Asia is that predictability and rule-based way of doing things is eroding fast. There is no user’s manual for this emerging model of international relations.
On the side of NTS Threats, food security has broken the queue and pushed rudely to the front. We have seen it in two most recent examples, one on the other side of the planet and the other right in this neighbourhood. Both the countries, strong militarily, were shaken by the ripple effect of corrosion in food security.
I sounded a general warning on 16 January 2026. The piece was titled ‘Be Prepared: The Timeless Wisdom Nations Must Relearn.’ — https://www.newscentralasia.net/2026/01/16/be-prepared-the-timeless-wisdom-nations-must-relearn/
However, as we inch toward the uncertain end of this turbulent January, there is the need to take some steps as quickly as possible.
It is perhaps advisable to call a meeting, physically or through video link, of the Consultative Council of the Heads of State of Central Asia.
There is the need to jointly discuss the prevailing situations in various parts of the world, near and far, and formulate a joint strategy, and action plan. In doing so, there would be the need to quantify both the TS and NTS Threats, look at them as two parts of a whole, and treat them at par.
On a scale of 1-10, the current security situation in Central Asia is 7 or 8, which is quite satisfactory. However, the emergence of some unpleasant surprises can push the region downward.
Among the measures that must be taken, the upgrading of UNRCCA should be at the top.
UNRCCA (United Nations Regional Centre for Preventive Diplomacy for Central Asia), established in Ashgabat in 2007, is a vibrant and dynamic entity of the United Nations. The Centre has a proven track record and is greatly respected in the region and beyond. The team is excellent; all of them, without exception.
Turkmenistan has proposed, and the region agrees, that UNRCCA has the capacity to play a much large and more effective role. There is just the need to redefine its mandate and it can perhaps be done just by the issuance of an administrative order by the UN Secretary General.
Also of utmost importance is the role the OSCE can play. With its origins emanating from somewhat different expectations, OSCE is currently a regional partner in so many ways. In the combined regional strategy for TS and NTS Threats, the OSCE can play an important role side by side with the UNRCCA.
However, for this to happen, the OSCE would need to be region-centric in some areas – not Vienna looking at Central Asia but Central Asia looking at Central Asia. — This would require comfortable working relationship with SCO, CSTO, CIS, ECO, OTS among others.
It goes without saying that crucial role – and responsibility – remains attached to the various specialized organs of the UN, including but not limited to UNDP, UNICEF, UNFPA, FAO, and others whose institutional memory and talent pool make them a vital asset for struggle against NTS Threats.
Since Food security needs to be bolstered fast, we have launched a report on this under our nCa Special Reports series. An augmented version of this report includes special supplements on the roadmap to self-sufficiency in sugar, cooking oil, and instant noodles.
Another report – Central Asia Non-Traditional Security – is in final editing and should hopefully be ready for launch next week. This report outlines the NTS Threats facing Central Asia and looks at probable scenarios in this area.
Our reports argue that while food security and NTS Threats must be taken seriously, the region is quite capable of dealing with them. The solutions are available within. /// nCa, 23 January 2026