Tariq Saeedi
This is the concluding part of the series. We would look at some more hypothetical scenarios and give an executive summary of this report.
Table 15: Polymer Industry Value Chain Development at Gwadar
| Stage | Products | Investment | Employment | Revenue Potential | Market |
| Stage 1: Primary Polymers | Polyethylene (HDPE, LDPE, LLDPE) Polypropylene (homo, co-polymer) | $5-7 billion | 3,000 direct 10,000 indirect | $1.5-2.5B annually | 70% export 30% domestic |
| Stage 2: Downstream Processing | Plastic films & sheets Pipes & fittings Packaging materials Containers | $2-3 billion | 8,000 direct 25,000 indirect | $2-3B annually | Regional market 50% export |
| Stage 3: Finished Products | Automotive components Consumer goods Construction materials Medical supplies | $3-5 billion | 15,000 direct 40,000 indirect | $4-6B annually | Domestic + export Afghanistan, Central Asia |
| Supporting Industries | Additives & compounding Molds & dies Machinery maintenance Logistics & warehousing | $1-2 billion | 5,000 direct 15,000 indirect | $1-2B annually | Service sector |
| TOTAL VALUE CHAIN | Integrated Cluster | $11-17 billion | 31,000 direct 90,000 indirect | $8.5-13.5B annually | Economic transformation |
Timeline:
- Years 1-5: Primary polymer complex construction & commissioning
- Years 3-7: Stage 2 downstream processors attracted
- Years 5-10: Mature industrial cluster with Stage 3 manufacturers
- Years 10+: Regional petrochemical hub competing with Gulf producers
Table 16: Comparative Advantage – Gwadar vs. Regional Polymer Hubs
| Location | Feedstock Cost | Labor Cost | Energy Cost | Logistics | Market Access | Overall Competitiveness |
| Gwadar (with TAPI) | $10-11/MMBTU | Low ($200-400/month) | Low (gas-based power) | Deep-water port Direct shipping | Middle East: 2-3 days Africa: 5-7 days Europe: 12-15 days | Highly competitive |
| Persian Gulf (UAE, Saudi) | $3-5/MMBTU (local gas) | High ($800-1,500/month) | Very low (subsidized) | Excellent ports | Similar access | Strong but saturated |
| China (East Coast) | $8-12/MMBTU (imported) | Medium ($400-800/month) | Medium | Major ports | Domestic focus | Competitive locally |
| India (West Coast) | $9-13/MMBTU (LNG) | Medium ($300-600/month) | Medium-High | Good ports | Domestic priority | Regional competition |
| Turkey | $10-14/MMBTU (imported) | Medium-High ($600-1,000/month) | High (imported) | European access | Europe + Middle East | European gateway |
| Iran | $2-4/MMBTU (local gas) | Low ($200-400/month) | Very low | Sanctions-limited | Constrained by sanctions | Underutilized potential |
Gwadar’s Competitive Advantages:
- Lower labor costs than Gulf states (60-70% cheaper)
- Strategic location between Middle East, South Asia, and Central Asia
- CPEC infrastructure provides land routes to Central Asia and China
- Tax incentives (15-year tax holiday in EPZ)
- Untapped market position – not competing with established hubs
- Stable gas supply from TAPI at predictable prices
Table 17: Pakistan’s Polymer Import Substitution Opportunity
| Polymer Category | Current Imports (MT/year) | Import Value ($/year) | Gwadar Production Potential | Import Substitution | FX Savings |
| Polyethylene (all grades) | 850,000 | $900-1,100M | 1,200,000 MT | 100% substitution | $900M-1.1B |
| Polypropylene | 450,000 | $500-650M | 400,000 MT | 90% substitution | $450-585M |
| PVC | 300,000 | $350-450M | 0 (future phase) | 0% initially | Future potential |
| PET | 200,000 | $250-350M | 0 (future phase) | 0% initially | Future potential |
| Other Polymers | 250,000 | $300-400M | Partial | 30-40% | $90-160M |
| TOTAL ADDRESSABLE | 2,050,000 MT | $2.3-2.95B | 1,600,000 MT | 70-75% | $1.44-1.85B annually |
Sources: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, Trade Development Authority of Pakistan, Pakistan Plastics Manufacturers Association
Critical Finding: Pakistan imports $2.3-2.95 billion worth of polymers annually. A single 1.6 million MT/year complex at Gwadar could replace 70-75% of these imports, saving $1.44-1.85 billion in foreign exchange annually.
Table 18: Regional Polymer Demand – Export Market for Gwadar
| Market | Current Polymer Demand (MT/year) | Growth Rate | 2030 Projection | Gwadar’s Addressable Market | Revenue Potential |
| Afghanistan | 50,000-80,000 | 8-10% | 150,000-200,000 | 60-70% | $75-140M |
| Central Asia (5 countries) | 1,500,000 | 5-6% | 2,000,000-2,200,000 | 10-15% | $200-330M |
| Iran | 3,500,000 | 3-4% | 4,200,000 | 5-8% (limited by sanctions) | $210-336M |
| Middle East (re-export) | 15,000,000+ | 3-4% | 18,000,000+ | 2-3% | $360-540M |
| East Africa | 2,000,000 | 6-7% | 2,800,000-3,000,000 | 15-20% | $420-600M |
| Pakistan (domestic) | 2,050,000 | 4-5% | 2,500,000-2,700,000 | 50-60% | $1,250-1,620M |
| TOTAL ADDRESSABLE | 24,100,000+ | Variable | 29,650,000-32,100,000 | Focus markets | $2.5-3.6B potential |
Strategic Positioning:
- Afghanistan: Natural market via TAPI corridor, growing rapidly
- Central Asia: Landlocked, limited polymer production, natural customers via CPEC routes
- East Africa: Gwadar’s proximity (5-7 days vs. 15-20 days from East Asia) creates competitive advantage
- Middle East: Re-export of specialized grades, complementing not competing with Gulf producers
- Pakistan: Import substitution base load ensures project viability
Table 19: Alternative Gas Monetization Options Beyond Polymers
| Option | Technology | Gas Input | Investment | Revenue | Strategic Value |
| 1. Fertilizer (Urea) | Haber-Bosch + ammonia synthesis | 250-300 MMCFD | $1.5-2B | $800M-1.2B/year | Food security Agricultural exports |
| 2. Methanol Production | Partial oxidation or steam reforming | 300-400 MMCFD | $2-3B | $1.2-1.8B/year | Chemical feedstock Fuel blending |
| 3. Ammonia (Blue/Green) | Steam reforming + CCS | 350-450 MMCFD | $3-4B | $1.5-2.2B/year | Hydrogen economy Export to Europe/Japan |
| 4. GTL (Gas-to-Liquids) | Fischer-Tropsch process | 500-600 MMCFD | $8-12B | $2-3B/year | Premium diesel/kerosene Import substitution |
| 5. Compressed Gas Export | Compression + shipping (CNG) | Variable | $500M-1B | Market-dependent | Regional trading Flexibility |
| 6. Power Generation + Export | Combined cycle gas turbines | 800-1,000 MMCFD | $2-3B | $1-1.5B/year | Regional power grid Afghanistan/Iran supply |
| 7. Industrial Park Supply | Direct pipeline distribution | 300-500 MMCFD | $300-500M | $400-600M/year | Cluster development Job creation |
Recommendation: Diversified approach combining:
- Primary: Polymers (500 MMCFD) – highest value addition
- Secondary: Fertilizer expansion (200 MMCFD) – food security
- Tertiary: Industrial park supply (300 MMCFD) – economic development
- Balance: Direct consumption high-value sectors (525 MMCFD)
Total: 1,525 MMCFD utilized with maximized economic returns
Table 20: Environmental and Social Benefits of Value-Added Gas Processing
| Benefit Category | Quantification | Impact |
| CO₂ Reduction vs. Coal | 40-50% lower emissions | Using gas instead of coal for power/industry |
| Flare Gas Elimination | Eliminate 5-10% waste | Productive use vs. environmental damage |
| Water Conservation | Modern closed-loop systems | 80% less water vs. old refineries |
| Employment Generation | 120,000 direct + indirect jobs | Gwadar transformation + Balochistan development |
| Skill Development | Technical training programs | 10,000+ Pakistanis trained in petrochemicals |
| Regional Integration | Pakistan-Afghanistan-Central Asia | Economic corridor strengthens peace |
| Technology Transfer | World-class petrochemical expertise | Local capacity building |
| Import Substitution | $1.5-2B annual FX savings | Reduced current account deficit |
| Export Diversification | Non-textile manufactured exports | Economic resilience |
| Balochistan Development | Province’s first major industrial project | Regional equity + prosperity |
UN Sustainable Development Goals Alignment:
- SDG 7: Affordable and clean energy
- SDG 8: Decent work and economic growth
- SDG 9: Industry, innovation, and infrastructure
- SDG 11: Sustainable cities and communities
- SDG 12: Responsible consumption and production
- SDG 17: Partnerships for the goals
Executive Summary: TAP is Fully Justified Without India
Key Conclusions:
1. Afghanistan Can Absorb Significantly More Gas
- Current production: 23-25 MMCFD (barely sufficient)
- TAPI allocation: 500 MMCFD (20x current production)
- Justified demand by 2035: 700-800 MMCFD based on:
- Power generation expansion (35% → 70% electrification)
- Fertilizer industry growth (food security priority)
- Cement boom (13% annual growth, urbanization)
- Mining industrialization (Chinese partnerships for copper, lithium)
- Population growth (2.1% annually, reaching 45M+)
2. Pakistan Has Highly Profitable Value-Added Uses
- Polymer production at Gwadar: $650M+ annual profit on 500 MMCFD input
- Converts $10-11/MMBTU gas into $1,125/tonne polymers (67% value addition)
- Replaces $1.5-2B annual polymer imports
- Creates 120,000 direct + indirect jobs
- Establishes Pakistan as regional petrochemical hub
3. Economics Favor TAP in Many Scenarios
- Lost transit revenue: -$700-800M annually (without India)
- Gained opportunities:
- Additional gas allocation: +200-500 MMCFD
- Polymer profits: +$650M-1.2B annually (depending on scale)
- Import substitution: +$1.5-2B foreign exchange savings
- Infrastructure savings: +$3.4-5.4B (avoided LNG terminals)
- Employment: +120,000 jobs
- Net result: TAP can be economically superior to TAPI when gas is processed for value-addition
4. Regional Partnerships Are Strong and Viable
- Turkmenistan: $3.4B invested in Kiyanly petrochemical complex (380,000 MT PE + 80,000 MT PP)
- Proven technology, seeking market access via Gwadar
- Natural gas supplier and equity partner (20-25%)
- Uzbekistan: $5B methanol-to-olefins under construction, $4B Uz-Kor JV operational since 2016
- ADB financing secured ($125M loan + $275M guarantee)
- Proven JV model with Korea, ready for Pakistan partnership
- Operating expertise and equity (15-20%)
- Kazakhstan: Diversified economy, BRI participant, strong Chinese relationships
- Financial partner seeking port access (15-20% equity)
- Regional market bridge to Central Asia
5. Infrastructure and Market Conditions Are Favorable
- Gwadar Industrial Estate: 3,000 acres designated, 1,100 plots allotted
- Aramco Refinery: $10B oil refinery + $1B petrochemical complex planned
- Synergistic with TAPI polymer production
- Creates integrated energy hub
- Global polymer market: $666B (2024) → $993B (2032), growing 4.6% CAGR
- Asia-Pacific dominates with 50%+ market share
- Pakistan strategically positioned between Middle East, South Asia, Central Asia
- Tax incentives: 15-year tax holiday in Gwadar EPZ, 0% equipment import duty
6. Strategic and Geopolitical Advantages of TAP
- Simpler governance: 2 countries vs. 4 countries (easier decision-making)
- Shorter pipeline: 1,600 km vs. 1,814 km (lower CAPEX: $6-7B vs. $10B)
- Removes India-Pakistan tensions: Major political risk eliminated
- Strengthens Pakistan-Afghanistan ties: Shared economic interests promote stability
- Faster execution: 4-5 years vs. 6-8 years (reduced financing costs)
- Earlier returns: Gas flows 2030 vs. 2032-2033 under TAPI
7. Risk Mitigation Demonstrates Viability
- Afghanistan security risk: Shared by TAPI and TAP equally
- Mitigation: International guarantees, multi-country insurance, UN/SCO backing
- Taliban government showing pragmatic approach to infrastructure
- Financing risk: Lower for TAP due to shorter pipeline, simpler structure
- Central Asian equity partners reduce debt burden
- Chinese/ADB/IsDB support available for regional cooperation
- Demand risk: Value-added processing ensures profitability regardless of direct consumption demand
- Polymers provide export revenues independent of domestic gas demand
- Afghanistan’s industrial growth provides additional buffer
Final Recommendation
TAP (Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan) pipeline is fully economically and strategically justified even without India’s participation, and in certain scenarios may actually be preferable to TAPI.
Preferred Scenario Ranking:
- TAPI with India (Optimal): Maximum benefits through transit revenue + full allocation + regional cooperation
- TAP with Polymer Complex at Gwadar (Excellent): Higher economic returns through value-addition, stronger Pakistan-Afghanistan partnership, simplified governance
- TAPI with Delayed India (Acceptable): Build for India but proceed without waiting indefinitely
- TAP with Afghanistan Enhanced Allocation (Good): Afghanistan takes 700-800 MMCFD, Pakistan takes 1,525-1,625 MMCFD, both countries prosper
Sources
Afghanistan Data:
- World Bank Afghanistan Development Update (December 2024, April 2025)
- National Statistics and Information Authority (NSIA) Afghanistan
- Bayat Power Company operational reports
- Mining Watch Afghanistan
- SIGAR (Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction)
Polymer Industry:
- P&S Intelligence Global Polymer Market Report 2024
- Fortune Business Insights – Polyethylene Market 2024-2033
- Straits Research – Polypropylene Market Analysis 2024-2034
- Data Bridge Market Research – Asia-Pacific Polymer Analysis
- Pakistan Plastics Manufacturers Association
Central Asia Petrochemicals:
- Turkmenistan State News Agency (Kiyanly Complex data)
- Asian Development Bank – Uzbekistan project reports
- Uz-Kor Gas Chemical Company annual reports
- SINOPEC international project databases
Pakistan Infrastructure:
- Gwadar Development Authority master plans
- Saudi Aramco-Pakistan refinery agreements
- CPEC official project lists
- Pakistan Board of Investment incentive schedules
Report Prepared: November 2025 Data Current As Of: November 2025
* * *
In the end, we would like to underline that TAPI is genuinely an ideology. With the new paradigm we have created here, the benefits for the entire region and beyond would be plentiful.
For this to happen, Pakistan would need to recognize that TAPI gas pipeline is its best option for all of the mid- to long-term situations. There is the need to acknowledge that TAPI is synonymous to energy security for Pakistan.
There is the need to understand for all the external players that stability in Afghanistan is beneficial for all, and instability for none.
In the spirit of open-door policy, it is advisable to let new partners such as Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan to join the TAPI corridor structures. /// nCa, 1 December 2025 (CONCLUDED.)