The Asian Development Bank (ADB) is trimming its growth outlook for developing Asia and the Pacific by 0.1 and 0.2 percentage points for this year and next, respectively, amid the emergence of a new global trade environment, shaped by tariffs and updated trade agreements.
Economies in the region are projected to grow by 4.8% this year and 4.5% next year, according to Asian Development Outlook (ADO) September 2025. This compares with April forecasts of 4.9% and 4.7%, respectively.
The growth forecast for Caucasus and Central Asia is slightly upgraded for this year to 5.5%, while the projection for next year is trimmed by 0.1 percentage points to 4.9%, primarily due to lower oil and gas production in some countries in the subregion.
Central Asia continued to grow robustly in the first half of 2025 on strong performance in construction, trade, and services.
Turkmenistan reported steady growth at 6.3% with moderate gains in industry, expansion in agriculture and services, and large public investments in industrial and social infrastructure. Industry is estimated to have grown by 1.8%, mainly driven by construction and moderate expansion in hydrocarbon production. The rest of the economy benefited from expansion in agriculture by 4.5% and services by 9.6%, with wholesale and retail trade growing by 9.9%, transport and communications by 10.8%, and catering and other services by 8.6%.
On the demand side, the government reported higher investment in industrial and social infrastructure. Investment was reported to grow by 15.6%, with 44.8% going to industrial infrastructure, mainly oil, gas, and petrochemicals; chemicals; textiles and light industry; food and consumer goods; and construction materials. The rest was allocated for social projects in housing and urban development, health care and education, and social welfare. Comprising 17.7% of GDP, most investment is public.
Assuming the current pace of economic expansion with moderate growth in hydrocarbons, this report slightly reduces the ADO April 2025 growth projection for 2025 and maintains the growth forecast for 2026.
Kazakhstan saw growth surge to 6.2%, backed by higher oil production, government investment in infrastructure, and gains in manufacturing and services.
The Kyrgyz Republic grew by 11.7%, driven by strong gains in construction, trade, and private consumption, with notable expansion in services and a rebound in industry, though agriculture moderated.
Tajikistan maintained robust growth at 8.1%, led by booming industry, especially metal ore production, as well as expanding services and agriculture, with consumption benefiting from higher remittances and public salaries.
Expansion in Uzbekistan reached 7.2%, fueled by consumption, investment, and surging gold exports. Strong performance in these areas offset decline in exports of some manufactures, with trade tension posing a risk to growth.
The full text of the Asian Development Outlook (ADO) September 2025 is available here:
///nCa, 1 October 2025