German Unity and Central Asia

nCa Commentary

Ashgabat, 6 October 2008 (nCa) --- The global economic crisis is heading east and it will sit thickly on top of the global food crisis. The fusion will take place during this winter – a winter that is likely to be as harsh as the previous one in Central Asia.

In a world that keeps getting curioser and curioser, it connects very directly with the German Unity Day that was celebrated on 3 October around the world including Ashgabat.

Ambassador Morell hosted a lavish reception and the guests showed their appreciation by trying to outdo each other in downing the German beer and demolishing the German sausages.

When the beer gets out of the system and the sausages leave the intestinal maze, the real world hits back in sharp focus.

The triple trouble – the global food crisis, the global economic crisis and the severe winter – is, in equal parts, a challenge and an opportunity.

Germany has the credentials to step out on behalf of Europe for mutually rewarding interaction with Central Asia:

• Germany was the world’s leading exporter of goods in 2007 (nearly US $ 1.33 trillion)
  

• Germany is the largest national economy in Europe, the third largest by nominal GDP in the world, and the fifth largest by GDP (PPP)
  

• Germany is one of the few truly solvent economies (trade surplus in 2006 Euro 165 billion)
  

• Unification with East Germany was probably the biggest economic challenge accepted voluntarily by a country in the twentieth century. Around US $ 80 billion are being transferred from the west to the east annually since 1990 and it will continue till 2019 – more than US $ 2.3 trillion in all
  

• Germany is the world’s second biggest aid donor after the US, with contributions in 2007 exceeding US $ 12 billion. In terms of per capita contribution of in population, it is the biggest
  

• Germany has fully paid war reparations to hundreds of thousands of individuals and to the state of Israel according to the agreement signed on 10 September 1952
  

• Germany has full diplomatic presence in all the Central Asian countries

In addition to all this, there is one more thing that gives special edge to Germany: Over the years, Germany has shown better understanding and more respect for the culture and way of life in Central Asia.

In the impending food and economic crises Europe and Central Asia would certainly need each other but it is the coming winter that can potentially determine the shape of bilateral relations, matching challenges with opportunities.

With Germany in lead, Europe could possibly invite Central Asia to create a joint Central Asia Winter Fund.

The immediate goal of the fund should be to provide adequate supplies of heating fuel, dry food provisions, protective clothing including sleeping bags, kerosene and solid fuel heaters, and medical supplies.

In addition, there should be some system to protect livestock and infrastructure installations against prolonged sub-zero temperatures.

The long term objective should be to ensure region-wide food security, infrastructure development, evenly spread economic opportunities for all and universal healthcare.

It is not a purely charitable undertaking. There are immense commercial opportunities for everyone.

An unrelated but important point: We have had enough of VE Day celebrations. It is absurd to assume that victors and losers can be clearly identified after a war; everyone is a loser at the end of a war. The wise thing to do would be to rename it ‘Remembrance Day’ – for all the dead of all the wars.