Curmudgeons! Hands off Asian Energy Projects!!!

Tariq Saeedi

Ashgabat, 29 April 2008 (nCa) --- It was six years ago this month that I posed a joint question to Presidents Kharami and Niyazov: “Every time there is some progress on TAP or IPI, the western media starts howling in unison that one project would come at the cost of the other, the success of one project would spell the failure of the other. Now that both the presidents are here, could you please tell us whether both the projects are possible or not.”

The date was 22 April 2002, the location was presidential palace in Ashgabat, and the occasion was Niyazov-Khatami bilateral meeting ahead of the first Caspian summit.

It took both the presidents about 20 minutes – the entire time allocated for the press conference – to answer the question.

The Turkmen and Iranian presidents were unanimous in their opinion that in view of the rising demand of natural gas in India and Pakistan, both the projects were perfectly feasible.

In fact, Kharami proposed that the anticipated demand of gas in South Asia justifies a third pipeline, combining the gas from Turkmenistan and Iran.

However, some things never change.

Now that TAP is TAPI and IPI is still IPI and both are moving ahead decisively, the same croaking ravens are singing the same old song.

If the purpose is to create misunderstanding between the suppliers – Iran and Turkmenistan – or buyers – IndiaPakistan – the time has passed for that kind of skullduggery. and

If the objective is to create difficulties for the energy projects in South and Central Asia, the whole exercise of trying to pit one country against the other would amount to no more than background noise; irritating but harmless.

If the idea is to block all other projects to spare gas for Trans-Caspian, this zero-sum mentality is not compatible with the regional environment anymore.

Whatever. . . Whatever. . .

As a rule, I abhor exclamation mark. Nonetheless, I have happily broken this rule and used four exclamation marks in the title of this commentary—to nail the four corners, as they say:

• Everyone in the region is alive to the fact that India and Pakistan need the gas volumes equivalent to the capacity of four pipelines of the size of TAPI and IPI. It is either that or inevitable decline in the growth rate of their economies. No matter what is written and said by the armchair pundits, the policymakers are clear about their needs and priorities.
  

• At one time or the other I have spoken to the top leadership of all the participating countries of TAPI and IPI – Turkmenistan, Iran, Afghanistan, Pakistan and India. There is consensus that regional energy projects would promote stability and prosperity in South and Central Asia.
  

• As a precaution against distraction, system is in place in all the participating countries to put only the relevant commentaries and analyses in the morning briefs of policymakers and decision makers. Empty rhetoric is discarded without second thought.
  

• Natural gas is fast becoming a globally traded commodity. Price is not a point of contention.
  

• After years of robust economic growth, India and Pakistan are in a position to pay the asking price for gas.
  

• Turkmenistan and Iran are not desperate to lay any pipelines, in any direction. As it is, they have clients falling over each other for all the gas they can sell. Ahmedinejad and Berdymuhamedov are not touring the region to promote their projects against each other.
  

• Uncle Sam would be well advised to keep its gawky nose out of the affairs of this region. Who buys gas from whom, is a matter best left to the regional leaders.