EU and Central Asia: Tango or Twist?

Tariq Saeedi

Ashgabat, 8 April 2008 (nCa) --- The big event this week would be the high profile meeting of EU and Central Asia in Ashgabat. When the meet ends on 10 April, it would probably be clear whether it is a troika or triangle, tango or twist.

EU heavyweights including the European Commissioner for External Relations, Benita Ferrero-Waldner, EU Special Representative for Central Asia, Pierre Morel, and French Foreign Minister, Bernard Kouchner, representing the next Presidency country, will be led by Dimitrij Rupel, Slovenian foreign minister and current President of the EU General Affairs and External Relations Council.

Central Asian countries – Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan – will send their foreign ministers to the meeting.

EU is consistently building on the momentum gained during the German presidency to engage with Central Asia on a broad range of issues. The Ashgabat conference would be the second EU troika in Central Asia, aimed at implementation of the EU Strategy Paper for assistance to Central Asia adopted in June 2007.

It is important for EU to come to terms with some basic realities:

Consolidation of efforts and resources

Europe is fragmented in Central Asia. There are several platforms through which the European countries are trying to interact with Central Asia: EU, NATO, OSCE, various UN programmes, local and multinational NGOs, and individual country programmes. All of them are operating with several overlapping areas, the result being that more budget is spent on administrative activities and little is left to trickle down to the grassroots level.

Because of the piecemeal approach the central fact is never registered by all sides that Europe is the biggest donor to Central Asia.

Two important questions beg to be considered with absolute honesty:

1. Is it advisable to do away with OSCE and reassign its resources and funds to NATO and EU?

2. Is it sensible to see the UN agencies and NGOs through either/or prism?

Refocus

There is need to readjust the focus.

There is always the tendency to link certain issues with certain issues. One can understand the need to impress the voters back home because elections are always around the corner but voters would be deeply impressed if they are guaranteed steady supply of energy resources at affordable prices, minimum inflation rate, and protection against terrorism. These objectives can never be achieved by mismatching priorities.

A case in point is what is being done to China before the Olympics. By embarrassing China one can neither get a better deal for Tibet nor for Europe. As the things stand today, Tibet is not viable outside China. Also, there is bitter history, dating back to Yuan dynasty (1260-94) when the Tibetan monks eagerly acted as enforcers on behalf of the Mongols. By the way, the Dalai Lama is a descendant of Chengiz Khan (Genghis Khan, if you are still reading the old books).

Pragmatism

The EU needs to get out of the psychological box that its interests are inseparably linked with those of the United Sates. This could be true in some other parts of the world but not in the Central Asian region.

Factually speaking, US interests would be better served by open and visible detachment of EU from the US policies as far as Central Asia is concerned. There are four points where EU needs to demonstrate that it doesn’t subscribe to US policy in the region:

1. Stop encircling Russia: NATO has wisely declined to accept Ukrainian and Georgian bid for the time being. Even though it is a baby step, it is a step in the right direction. Russia is an undeniable reality in this region and any attempts to encircle Russia would defeat whatever is done to court the region.

2. Stop Military Base Hunting: The US is diligently shopping for military bases and airports in the region. Although the experience so far has shown that it is an exercise in futility, there are no signs of learning from the past.

3. Engage Iran: Notwithstanding the rhetoric of the corporate media and US state department, Iran is the best transit route for Central Asia energy resources toward Europe. The infrastructure is there and hardly any investment is required. In return, Iran is the most convenient route for European goods destined for Central Asia. The development of the North-South corridor will make it even more attractive territory for to-and-fro transit.

4. Offer special status to Russia and Turkey: Goal posts have been shifting arbitrarily and Turkey is nowhere nearer entering the club than it was a few decades ago. Russia, at the other end, though not an EU candidate, is quite similar to Turkey as far as European interests are concerned. The best thing would be to offer both a special status that should give them everything that a member country can get except for visa-free entry and voting rights.