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Gas Row and its Effect on Turkmenistan-Iran Relations
Tariq Saeedi
Ashgabat, 16 January 2008 (nCa) --- The region is expected to come out of the grip of the severely cold weather within a week or so and still there are no signs of resumption of Turkmen gas supplies to Iran.
Media outlets of all shades are full of speculations about the cause of the disruption of gas flow and its likely effects on Turkmenistan-Iran relations.
Some analysts have opined that the United States could have encouraged Turkmenistan to cut off gas supplies in the middle of subzero stretch. They assert that it could be a way for the USA to pressurize further the Iranian regime.
Some say that Russia may have pressurized Turkmenistan to shut the tap because it would ultimately discredit Turkey, the potential rival of Russia for gas transit to Europe.
There are some who argue that the recent death of an Iranian national ethnic Turkmen at the hands of Iranian authorities near Bandar Turkmen could have angered the government of Turkmenistan to retaliate.
To find the truth one must turn to the most outspoken man in the region: President Mahmoud Ahmedinejad of Iran.
A few days ago Ahmedinejad said in Shiraz that some people in Iran had caused the problem. According to Noandish News of Iran, he is said to have remarked that Turkmenistan's decision to stop natural gas export to Iran was a conspiracy, and "at the behest of some people from inside Iran whose names I can't mention out of respect for the regime."
There seems to be more than a grain of truth in this statement because on 15 January some Iranian websites reported that Syed Imad Husseini, secretary of the energy committee of the Iranian parliament, remarked cryptically that “No explanation can be excluded.”
If Ahmedinejad suspected the USA or Russia, he would not have mince his words, especially when the parliamentary elections are just around the corner.
His reference to ‘respect for the regime’ gives a big clue.
Ahmedinejad’s victory in the second round of presidential elections was totally unexpected because everybody was willing to bet on Rafsanjani.
Even though Rafsanjani was the president of Iran nearly a decade ago, he still holds wide influence in the religious, bureaucratic and political circles. To brighten his prospects for the election to the top slot next year he could be expected – though it is mere speculation – to use his contacts in the ministry of oil to derail the negotiations with Turkmenistan.
Looking at the way the Iranian ministry of oil handled the price negotiations with Turkmenistan, this seems to be the case.
Some senior officials in the oil ministry may have been ready for give-and-take with Rafsanjani because corruption scandals have been erupting lately in the ministry and if the case is proved in a court of law, the offenders, even senior officers, are sentenced to long prison sentences and lashes. By causing trouble for Ahmedinejad they may have expected to divert the attention from themselves for the time being and hope that Rafsanjai would replace Ahmedinejad next year.
The disunited stand by the Iranian ministries on this issue is also indicative of something similar.
Whatever the case, the spat will not cause any long term damage to Turkmenistan-Iran relations. ----- Iran has a lot at stake.
The North-South corridor, the ambitious railway project that would connect Persian Gulf with Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan, Russia and Europe, is very important for Iran. When the project is ready, it would bring great economic and political benefits to Iran.
Negotiations for determination of the legal status of Caspian and division of its resources have reached a decisive stage. Even in utter anger Iran would not think of alienating Turkmenistan, a long time friend of Iran.
Trade turnover between Iran and Turkmenistan is already nearly US $ 1.5 billion, second largest after Russia, and the single-country exhibition of Iranian goods in Ashgabat late last year was a big show to claim larger share of Turkmen market.
Some rivers such as Murghab-Harirud and Etrek are flowing from Turkmenistan to Iran. The water from these rivers is crucial for the economy of the adjoining provinces of Iran. Under no circumstances would Iran think of disturbing the water sharing arrangement that has worked very satisfactorily so far.
The gas supplies would eventually resume but questions would remain.
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Comments (7 posted)
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Posted by s,a.hassan, 16 January, 2008 15:12:15Referring to the commentary, as a friend and visitor of your website, I wanted to mention the following subjects: As you have referred to the press release of M.F.A. of Turkmenistan, it was better you would wait & evaluate in your report, based on the official response of Iranian side also. Afterwards I wanted to ask, not to interrelate the subjects with each other, for example to be a supplier & transit country for gas , does not relate to a situation which is basically beyond the context of the bilateral contract ( BETWEEN I.R.IRAN and TURKMENISTAN) factors such as technical difficulties and weather in which is so intense cold that haven’t been during 3 decades ago and cutting off the gas was a sign was like what happened to countries in the region in Januaries in previous years . Besides, I predict that both sides will go forward, because regionally thinking the two countries are supplier of gas to neighboring countries & Europe and both are at one stance. Besides that, both are obliged to follow their contracts. Although we are not about to evaluate the relation of two countries based on an event, but it must be mentioned that neighborly relation which is considered in many documents between the two countries such as Friendship... Treaty is prominent and based on the will of the rulers of two countries, and as a Turkmen proverb says ; neighbors will rescue each other even in resurrection, something which we had an example of it before (during the rule of president Rafsanjai ). The last point which must be mentioned is that the rulers of Iran must also find suitable solution for their difficulties in northern part of Islamic Republic of Iran .
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Posted by s.a.hassan, 16 January, 2008 15:12:15Referring to the commentary, as a friend and visitor of your website, I wanted to mention the following subjects: As you have referred to the press release of M.F.A. of Turkmenistan, it was better you would wait & evaluate in your report, based on the official response of Iranian side also. Afterwards I wanted to ask, not to interrelate the subjects with each other, for example to be a supplier & transit country for gas , does not relate to a situation which is basically beyond the context of the bilateral contract ( BETWEEN I.R.IRAN and TURKMENISTAN) factors such as technical difficulties and weather in which is so intense cold that haven’t been during 3 decades ago and cutting off the gas was a sign was like what happened to countries in the region in Januaries in previous years . Besides, I predict that both sides will go forward, because regionally thinking the two countries are supplier of gas to neighboring countries & Europe and both are at one stance. Besides that, both are obliged to follow their contracts. Although we are not about to evaluate the relation of two countries based on an event, but it must be mentioned that neighborly relation which is considered in many documents between the two countries such as Friendship... Treaty is prominent and based on the will of the rulers of two countries, and as a Turkmen proverb says ; neighbors will rescue each other even in resurrection, something which we had an example of it before (during the rule of president Rafsanjai ). The last point which must be mentioned is that the rulers of Iran must also find suitable solution for their difficulties in northern part of Islamic Republic of Iran .
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Posted by s,a,hassan, 16 January, 2008 15:12:15Referring to the commentary, as a friend and visitor of your website, I wanted to mention the following subjects: As you have referred to the press release of M.F.A. of Turkmenistan, it was better you would wait & evaluate in your report, based on the official response of Iranian side also. Afterwards I wanted to ask, not to interrelate the subjects with each other, for example to be a supplier & transit country for gas , does not relate to a situation which is basically beyond the context of the bilateral contract ( BETWEEN I.R.IRAN and TURKMENISTAN) factors such as technical difficulties and weather in which is so intense cold that haven’t been during 3 decades ago and cutting off the gas was a sign was like what happened to countries in the region in Januaries in previous years . Besides, I predict that both sides will go forward, because regionally thinking the two countries are supplier of gas to neighboring countries & Europe and both are at one stance. Besides that, both are obliged to follow their contracts. Although we are not about to evaluate the relation of two countries based on an event, but it must be mentioned that neighborly relation which is considered in many documents between the two countries such as Friendship... Treaty is prominent and based on the will of the rulers of two countries, and as a Turkmen proverb says ; neighbors will rescue each other even in resurrection, something which we had an example of it before (during the rule of president Rafsanjai ). The last point which must be mentioned is that the rulers of Iran must also find suitable solution for their difficulties in northern part of Islamic Republic of Iran .
-
Posted by s,a,hassan, 16 January, 2008 15:12:15Referring to the commentary, as a friend and visitor of your website, I wanted to mention the following subjects: As you have referred to the press release of M.F.A. of Turkmenistan, it was better you would wait & evaluate in your report, based on the official response of Iranian side also. Afterwards I wanted to ask, not to interrelate the subjects with each other, for example to be a supplier & transit country for gas , does not relate to a situation which is basically beyond the context of the bilateral contract ( BETWEEN I.R.IRAN and TURKMENISTAN) factors such as technical difficulties and weather in which is so intense cold that haven’t been during 3 decades ago and cutting off the gas was a sign was like what happened to countries in the region in Januaries in previous years . Besides, I predict that both sides will go forward, because regionally thinking the two countries are supplier of gas to neighboring countries & Europe and both are at one stance. Besides that, both are obliged to follow their contracts. Although we are not about to evaluate the relation of two countries based on an event, but it must be mentioned that neighborly relation which is considered in many documents between the two countries such as Friendship... Treaty is prominent and based on the will of the rulers of two countries, and as a Turkmen proverb says ; neighbors will rescue each other even in resurrection, something which we had an example of it before (during the rule of president Rafsanjai ). The last point which must be mentioned is that the rulers of Iran must also find suitable solution for their difficulties in northern part of Islamic Republic of Iran .
-
Posted by s,a,hassan, 16 January, 2008 15:12:15Referring to the commentary, as a friend and visitor of your website, I wanted to mention the following subjects: As you have referred to the press release of M.F.A. of Turkmenistan, it was better you would wait & evaluate in your report, based on the official response of Iranian side also. Afterwards I wanted to ask, not to interrelate the subjects with each other, for example to be a supplier & transit country for gas , does not relate to a situation which is basically beyond the context of the bilateral contract ( BETWEEN I.R.IRAN and TURKMENISTAN) factors such as technical difficulties and weather in which is so intense cold that haven’t been during 3 decades ago and cutting off the gas was a sign was like what happened to countries in the region in Januaries in previous years . Besides, I predict that both sides will go forward, because regionally thinking the two countries are supplier of gas to neighboring countries & Europe and both are at one stance. Besides that, both are obliged to follow their contracts. Although we are not about to evaluate the relation of two countries based on an event, but it must be mentioned that neighborly relation which is considered in many documents between the two countries such as Friendship... Treaty is prominent and based on the will of the rulers of two countries, and as a Turkmen proverb says ; neighbors will rescue each other even in resurrection, something which we had an example of it before (during the rule of president Rafsanjai ). The last point which must be mentioned is that the rulers of Iran must also find suitable solution for their difficulties in northern part of Islamic Republic of Iran .
