Where do elephants go to die? — To a mammoth pit deep in the forest.
Where do empires go to die? — To the battlefield.
This is the era of outsourcing. From manufacturing to defence, from banking services to rigging the telephone cables, everything is outsourced.
The Empire has outsourced its own demise. In the best traditions of Empires, this Empire too will not go away peacefully.
* * *
In the previous part of this series we showed that ISIS in Afghanistan is the creation of the USA.
If the question is, why would the USA do that? — The counter-question is why did the USA create Al-Qaeda some three decades ago?
Instead of giving a direct answer, let’s look at some of the latest developments around the world:
King Salman of Saudi Arabia recently visited Russia. This was the first visit of a Saudi monarch to Moscow. From the outcome of this visit, two things stand out that are a source of worry for the Empire:
- Saudi Arabia asked Russia to extend curtailed oil output regime from March 2018 to June 2018. Russia did not agree right away but it can be read between the lines that if Saudi Arabia would agree to certain terms of Putin in Syria, he would reciprocate by keeping the oil production low till June 2018, even beyond. By proposing oil vs. Syria deal, Putin has taken away some of the global supervisory role of the Empire.
- Russia has agreed to sell S-400 anti missile system to Saudi Arabia. It is a system that has no equivalent in the western armies. Comparing Patriot with S-400 would be rather ambitious because Patriot was designed with a different purpose in mind. The purchase of S-400 would amount to vote of no confidence in Patriot, a system that is installed in almost every Gulf country facing Iran.
The Brexit is fast becoming a Pandora’s box. The Joker . . . I mean Juncker, is trying to make it as painful for the Great Britain as possible. This is what should have been expected from a man of his caliber – small bore.
If the Great Britain is seriously wounded while trying to leave this troubled union, it would be disastrous for the rest of the European body and unhelpful for the Empire.
Catalonia doesn’t know what to do with its recent vote – it can neither stay nor leave. If Spain denies secession or at least greater autonomy to Catalonia, it would be a mockery of democracy, just as we are seeing the democratic vote of Brexit being kicked in the head in the halls of EU power. Adding unnecessary pain to the Brexit deal and refusing the Catalonia vote would lay bare the multiple standards that are erroneously called democracy. It would evaporate the imaginary moral high ground that the Empire and its allies use in lecturing the smaller countries about democracy.
If the Catalonia vote is honoured and the Catalonian leadership decides on a timeline to ultimately become independent, it would open the floodgates of fragmentation in Europe. Next in line could be Lombardy and Sardinia in Italy. Scotland will certainly make another attempt at independence. Thanks to Juncker’s oppressive machinations, the separatists in every country of Europe will find additional incentive for divorce.
In fact, there are more than 99 separatist movements of various sizes in Europe. If just a third of them become active toward their autonomy or independence, it will leave the Empire as the sole proprietor of diktat, a position that will not really be tenable without outsourcing quite a bit of bullying and chaos.
Another fissure in the European fabric is the arrival of new leadership in Austria and Czech Republic. Their inward-looking policies will automatically squeeze the space available to the Union.
According to some estimates, by 2050, none of the European countries would be among the top 8 economies in the world. However, this cannot be taken as a foregone conclusion because Europe still has great momentum in research, science and technology.
By 2050, Chinese army would be the most powerful in the world.
In a linear progression, some European countries, most notably the UK, would be cured of their shoulder-to-shoulder syndrome and Uncle Sam would be forced to carry the burden of its ambitions on its own shoulders.
Together with this, we should keep in view the withdrawal of the Empire from TPP, expected withdrawal from Paris Climate Agreement, withdrawal from UNESCO now and possibly from other world bodies later, and internal policies that are fast smashing the brittle society, a society that pretended to be a melting pot but was actually an artificial patchwork.
Despite all this, the Empire is adamant in being considered an Empire. In some languages it is said that it takes twelve years for a king to reconcile with the fact that he has lost the crown. Understandably, the Empire will take longer.
The knee-jerk response, which is the only kind of response that can be expected from the team Trump, is to cultivate chaos and wage wars. Sadly, the Empire has the capacity to do that but not to the scale and for the duration that would be necessary to assert itself decisively.
Tillerson is currently speeding across the Middle East and South Asia to outsource chaos and disruption. He may even succeed to some extent but 20/20 vision is only obtainable in hindsight.
Containing China is on the top of the agenda but there are also some other heavy duty items on the wish list such as encircling Russia, replacing the current regime in Iran to bring a carbon copy of the Shah of the past to the throne, and keeping permanent control on the space of Afghanistan.
This last item is that explains why ISIS is appearing in Afghanistan. A peaceful and prosperous Afghanistan is not in the interests of the Empire. A chaotic Afghanistan serves many purposes, the territory and resources of Central Asia being among them.
To be continued . . . /// nCa, 23 October 2017